Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 2

Date: 17 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Belence Alves dos Prazeres Filho P. (Bra)


	Atlético Mineiro		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	7
	1.5	4.2	7
	1.45	4.33	7	Watch
	1.49	4.3	7.6
	1.5	4.3	7.27
	1.36	4.5	8
	1.48	4.25	7.2	Watch
	1.45	4.2	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.37)	4.26 ↓ (4.55)	7.26 ↓ (8.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
64.7%

Draw
22.3%

Criciúma
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

20.5%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

20%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Atlético Mineiro - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 16. Igor Rabello 4. Lemos M. 44. Rubens 5. Otavio 23. Franco A. 17. Igor Gomes 6. Gustavo Scarpa 7. Hulk 10. Paulinho	12. Alisson (G) 2. Claudinho 3. Rodrigo 33. Walisson Maia 22. Marcelo Hermes 19. Higor Meritao 8. Gustavo Barreto 7. Fellipe Mateus 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 14. Trauco M. 11. Bolasie Y.
Substitutes
14. Alan Kardec 45. Alisson 42. Cadu 11. Eduardo Vargas 13. Guilherme Arana 41. Isaac 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 38. Pedrinho 47. Romulo 15. Zaracho M.	4. Angel W. 35. Arthur Caike 5. Barcia M. 20. Candelo Y. 18. Eduardo Melo 15. Eliedson 41. Erick Garcia 6. Guilherme 21. Joao Carlos 26. Leo Goncalves 17. Matheusinho 32. Teixeira M. (G)
Coaches
Milito G.	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Rubens ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
37', Rodrigo 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽, Hulk (A),
45+8', Marcelo Hermes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
65', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
66', Igor Gomes ↓, Zaracho M. ↑,
78', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Barcia M. ↑,
79', Bolasie Y. ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
79', Paulinho ↓, Cadu ↑,
80', Hulk ↓, Eduardo Vargas ↑,
80', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Alisson ↑,
83', Higor Meritao 🟨,
84', Franco A. 🟨,
84', 1 - 1, Matheusinho ⚽,
88', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Eliedson ↑,
88', Walisson Maia ↓, Angel W. ↑,
90+9', Alisson 🟨,

Preview

Atlético MG is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Criciúma is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Criciúma could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atlético MG is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Criciúma: Angel W. (Injury) Jonathan (Injury)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Felipe Vizeu (Injury) Gustavo (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Atlético MG to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Atlético MG won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético MG won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
14.04.24	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.04.24	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Caracas - Atlético Mineiro	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
30.03.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWWT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie A
13.04.24	Criciúma - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.04.24	Criciúma - Brusque	1:1 ✺
30.03.24	Brusque - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
24.03.24	Criciúma - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 penalties ✺
21.03.24	Barra Santa Catarina - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.10.14	Criciúma - Atlético Mineiro	3:1
25.05.14	Atlético Mineiro - Criciúma	0:0
25.09.13	Criciúma - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
07.07.13	Atlético Mineiro - Criciúma	3:2

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