Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 10 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Atlético Mineiro		Rosario Central

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.49	4	7
	1.47	4	7.5	Watch
	1.49	4.07	8.19
	1.49	4.07	7.98
	1.4	4	7.5	Watch
	1.47	4.25	7.08	Watch
	1.46	3.85	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.92)	4.03 ↑ (3.7)	7.49 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
64.1%

Draw
23.3%

Rosario Central
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

24.8%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

23.8%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Mineiro's performance.

Rosario Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rosario Central might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Mineiro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rosario Central could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.7%	7%	2.3%

Atlético Mineiro - Rosario Central Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (78 of 86 users predict this - 90.7%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.56% – 96.84%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 34. Jemerson 4. Lemos M. 13. Guilherme Arana 23. Franco A. 6. Gustavo Scarpa 21. Battaglia R. 15. Zaracho M. 7. Hulk (C) 10. Paulinho	1. Broun J. (C) 33. Coronel E. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 2. Quintana C. 3. Sandez A. 45. Ortiz K. 16. Martinez M. 30. O'Connor T. 10. Malcorra I. 13. Jaminton Campaz 48. Cervera T.
Substitutes
14. Alan Kardec 45. Alisson Santana 42. Cadu 11. Eduardo Vargas 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 41. Isaac 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 5. Otavio 38. Pedrinho 47. Romulo	26. Burgos S. 29. Dupuy L. 17. Giaccone L. 24. Gimenez J. 60. Gomez J. 8. Ibarra F. 6. Komar J. 18. Lo Celso F. 44. Modica A. 37. Ocampo E. 21. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 20. Werner A. (G)
Coaches
Milito G.	Russo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
36', Jemerson 🟨,
37', Jaminton Campaz 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽, Hulk (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
66', Cervera T. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
66', Martinez M. ↓, Giaccone L. ↑,
69', Hulk ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Malcorra I. ⚽, Giaccone L. (A),
77', 2 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Guilherme Arana (A),
81', O'Connor T. 🟨,
90', Zaracho M. ↓, Otavio ↑,
90', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Alisson Santana ↑,
90+6', Mallo Blanco F. 🟨,
90+6', Paulinho ↓, Cadu ↑,

Preview

Atlético MG is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Rosario is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Atlético MG is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.04.24	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Caracas - Atlético Mineiro	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
30.03.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
17.03.24	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
09.03.24	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTLW
- Rosario Central
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
07.04.24	River Plate - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Rosario Central - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
28.03.24	Rosario Central - Barracas Central	1:2 ✺
19.03.24	Argentinos Juniors - Rosario Central	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
14.03.24	Rosario Central - Douglas Haig	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLW

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