Match Info

Catarinense - Round 6

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)


	Criciúma		Brusque

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.49	3.65	6.9
	1.46	3.5	9.15
	1.58	3.3	7.4	Watch
	1.44	3.5	7
	1.5	3.81	6.7
	1.45	3.33	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.84)	3.52 ↑ (3.12)	7.69 ↑ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
61.9%

Draw
26.2%

Brusque
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

29.2%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

31.7%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Criciúma's performance.

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brusque might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Criciúma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brusque could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Criciúma - Brusque Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Georgemy (G) 4. Cesar Martins 11. Diego Goncalves 150. Eduardo 8. Guilherme Lobo 10. Jhonata Robert 22. Marcelo Hermes 6. Marcinho 9. Nicolas 5. Octavio Henrique 3. Rodrigo (C)	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 3. Alisson Cassiano (C) 5. Bernardo 8. Biel Fonseca 11. Clinton 7. Gazao 16. Joao Felix 21. Luizao 2. Mateus Pivo 4. Rafael Milhorim 13. Salas M.
Substitutes
18. Bidu 16. Carvalho K. 15. Eliel Costa 14. Erick Garcia 7. Hiago Alves 21. Joao Carlos 17. Nufour S. 13. Ruan Carvalho 20. Sandry 12. Santos P. (G) 19. Thales 2. Willean Lepo	15. Alex Paulino 19. Alvaro 10. Joao Pedro 18. Joao Pedro 24. Leonardo 17. Lucas de Sa 9. Olavio 12. Paulo Gianezini (G) 6. Raimar 14. Ryan Santos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
9', Clinton 🟨,
20', Rafael Milhorim 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Clinton ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Nicolas ⚽,
38', 2 - 1, Diego Goncalves ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 2, Rafael Milhorim ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Marcinho ↓, Willean Lepo ↑,
46', Octavio Henrique ↓, Hiago Alves ↑,
58', Diego Goncalves 🟨,
67', 🟨,
69', 🟨,
79', 2 - 3, ⚽,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 3, Jhonata Robert ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Criciúma is Qualified for Catarinense (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Brusque is Qualified for Catarinense (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Brusque may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Criciúma is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.45%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.01.26	Camboriú - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
19.01.26	Criciúma - Concórdia	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Criciúma - Avaí	2:1 ✺
07.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Criciúma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWTWL
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
21.01.26	Brusque - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Brusque	0:1 ✺
14.01.26	Brusque - Figueirense	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Brusque - Carlos Renaux	1:0 ✺
06.01.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.02.25	Brusque - Criciúma	1:1
06.04.24	Criciúma - Brusque	1:1
30.03.24	Brusque - Criciúma	1:2
15.02.24	Criciúma - Brusque	1:2
08.04.23	Brusque - Criciúma	0:1
01.04.23	Criciúma - Brusque	1:0
05.02.23	Brusque - Criciúma	1:1

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