Match Info

Mineiro - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	TV Globo Internacional


	América Mineiro		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.65	3.05	2.02
	3.93	3.14	2.01
	3.77	3.19	1.97
	3.6	2.88	2
	3.83	3.02	1.97	Watch
	3.66	3.25	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↓ (4.14)	3.09 ↓ (3.3)	2 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
24.5%

Draw
29.7%

Atlético Mineiro
45.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

27.9%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

27.5%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (C) 3. Nathan Pelae 4. Rafa Barcelos 2. Emerson Santos 26. Maguinho 97. Val Soares 8. Felipe Amaral 96. Artur 20. Paulo Victor 9. Willian Bigode 21. Eduardo Person	22. Everson (G) 23. Preciado A. 4. Ruan Tressoldi 6. Alonso J. 16. Lodi R. 21. Franco A. 8. Maycon 30. Victor Hugo 10. Gustavo Scarpa 19. Reinier 7. Hulk (C)
Substitutes
16. Ale 7. Gabriel Barros 88. Jhonatan Lima 22. Leo Alaba 6. Paulinho 77. Segovia M. 55. Thallyson 11. Thauan 19. William (G) 33. Yago Santos 10. Yago Souza 67. Yarlen	11. Bernard 9. Cassierra M. 39. Cisse M. 28. Cuello 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 27. Minda A. 2. Natanael 25. Perez T. 3. Roman I. 14. Vitor Hugo
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Nathan Pelae ↓, Paulinho ↑,
63', Reinier ↓, Dudu ↑,
63', Preciado A. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
66', Willian Bigode ↓, Yago Souza ↑,
67', Val Soares ↓, Yarlen ↑,
80', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Cassierra M. ↑,
80', Victor Hugo ↓, Minda A. ↑,
83', Rafa Barcelos ↓, Thallyson ↑,
83', Paulo Victor ↓, Gabriel Barros ↑,
90+3', Gustavo 🟨,
90+4', Cisse M. 🟨,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

América MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético MG will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, América MG won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:29. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.95%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	América Mineiro - North Esporte Clube	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	América Mineiro - URT	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Uberlândia - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWLWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro	2:7 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Remo	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	1:1
21.01.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
15.03.25	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
08.03.25	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	4:0
29.01.25	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	1:1
17.03.24	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
09.03.24	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	2:0

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