Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)

Referee: Barba A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Atlético Morelia		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.72	3.2	2.45
	2.77	3.15	2.37
	2.56	3.35	2.66	Watch
	2.7	3	2.4
	2.8	3.3	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.03)	3.2 ↓ (3.42)	2.47 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
33.9%

Draw
28.7%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

27.3%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

26.5%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Morelia's form might have worsened.

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tepatitlán de Morelos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Morelia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tepatitlán de Morelos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 11. Figueroa B. 3. Hernandez S. 8. Martinez J. (C) 32. Moreno G. 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 4. Zamora D.	1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 26. Dominguez I. 10. Guzman W. 19. Islas O. 29. Mendoza B. 2. Pinela M. 6. Ruiz A. 20. Samano L. 8. Samano Salgado F. 23. Venegas J.
Substitutes
7. Aguilera A. D. 153. Alejandre R. G. 6. Botello O. 150. Conejo J. 23. Esqueda D. 28. Flores A. 34. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 10. Munoz Z. 31. Vivas J. F.	7. Escoto A. 18. Gomez J. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 5. Gonzalez K. 140. Iniguez O. 33. Martinez A. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 11. Reyes J. 30. Talavera J.
Coaches
Ortiz M.	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Mendoza B. ⚽, Guzman W. (A),
24', Dominguez I. 🟨,
26', Venegas J. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, del Campo R. (Penalty Awarded),
32', Venegas J. ↓, Gonzalez K. ↑,
37', Nambo M. 🟨,
45+5', del Campo R. 🟨,
45+7', 1 - 2, Dominguez I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Figueroa B. ↓, Botello O. ↑,
56', del Campo R. ↓, Aguilera A. D. ↑,
60', Botello O. 🟨,
67', Hernandez S. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
68', Ochoa Brandon 🟨,
70', Ruiz A. 🟨,
72', Mendoza B. 🟨,
72', Mendoza B. 🟨,
76', Ochoa Brandon ↓, Alejandre R. G. ↑,
76', Samano L. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
83', Samano Salgado F. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Aguilar D. (Own goal),
90+7', Flores A. (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', 3 - 2, Flores A. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Atlético Morelia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Morelia won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Morelia - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 46.04%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.03.26	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Venados	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWT
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
08.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Correcaminos UAT	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	3:2
31.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	3:1
17.08.24	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1
04.02.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	2:1
02.11.23	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
02.02.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	2:0
29.09.22	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1

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