Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Tlahuicole (Tlaxcala)

Referee: Solorio Arreola H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tlaxcala		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.48	3.4	2.52	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.49
	2.38	3.74	2.66	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.4
	2.53	3.38	2.39	Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.65)	3.45 ↑ (3.25)	2.55 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tlaxcala
37.2%

Draw
26.7%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

28.7%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

29.2%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tlaxcala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tlaxcala will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Tepatitlán will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tlaxcala (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Espinoza G. (G) 1. Govea I. 19. Castaneda S. 31. Silva J. 3. Santos E. 2. Gonzalez P. (C) 6. Iniestra A. 10. Figueroa F. 26. Blanco J. 11. Salomon O. 9. Christian	1. Gutierrez G. (C) 26. Dominguez I. 6. Ruiz A. 2. Pinela M. 24. Cardona U. 23. Venegas J. 22. Aguilar D. 19. Islas O. 10. Guzman W. 20. Samano L. 29. Mendoza B.
Substitutes
15. Blanco D. 14. Castellanos E. 17. Castillo E. 33. Martinez D. 13. Mendoza H. (G) 24. Robles E. 25. Rojas H. 20. Sanchez A. 5. Sancho J. 21. Zaragoza A.	18. Gomez J. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 5. Gonzalez K. 9. Lazarte L. 159. Macias L. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 8. Samano Salgado F. 30. Talavera J.
Coaches
Gustavo Leal	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Venegas J. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mendoza B. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
54', Blanco J. 🟨,
57', Aguilar D. 🟨,
57', Figueroa F. 🟨,
61', 🟨,
64', Blanco J. ↓, Robles E. ↑,
64', Gonzalez P. ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
70', Salomon O. ↓, Zaragoza A. ↑,
77', Ruiz A. 🟨,
81', Islas O. ↓, Lazarte L. ↑,
88', Santos E. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
88', Iniestra A. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
90', Samano L. ↓, Moreno Villegas J. A. ↑,
90+1', Aguilar D. ↓, Samano Salgado F. ↑,
90+4', Pinela M. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 0, Silva J. ⚽, Figueroa F. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Tepatitlán may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tlaxcala won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.02.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	5:2 ✺
30.01.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tlaxcala	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Tlaxcala - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Tlaxcala - Cancún	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWLWW
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Correcaminos UAT	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Dorados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
23.01.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tapatío	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	1:2
25.01.25	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2
10.08.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	0:0
04.04.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	1:1
13.10.23	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:1
14.04.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	0:0
20.09.22	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1

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