Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	ESPN
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Atlético Nacional		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.62	4	5	Watch
	1.62	3.86	5.72
	1.67	3.6	4.8	Watch
	1.61	3.81	6.01	Watch
	1.62	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.9)	3.84 ↑ (3.5)	5.34 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
57.8%

Draw
24.6%

Nacional Montevideo
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

26.7%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

26.5%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Nacional will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 3. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 21. Campuzano J. 80. Zapata J. 18. Hinestroza M. 10. Cardona E. 19. Viveros K. 9. Morelos A.	12. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 15. Calione P. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 11. Baez Corradi G. 6. Boggio L. 8. Oliva C. 18. Recoba J. 17. Eduardo Vargas 76. Herazo D.
Substitutes
11. Arce B. 23. Arias J. J. 27. Asprilla D. 15. Castillo H. (G) 20. Castro J. 28. Garcia S. 7. Gil Mosquera F. A. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 26. Rivero E. 17. Salazar A. 29. Sarmiento A. 5. Toscano Bassa K. D.	26. Arady B. 7. Lopez N. 19. Morales L. 80. Otero R. 10. Pereyra M. 9. Petit G. 2. Ramos N. 77. Rodriguez N. 5. Rodriguez Y. 27. Romero D. 25. Suarez I. (G) 16. Villalba Jaume L. M.
Coaches
Gandolfi J.	Liguera M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', 1 - 0, Hinestroza M. ⚽, Roman A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 2 - 0, Viveros K. ⚽, Hinestroza M. (A),
60', Recoba J. 🟨,
60', Calione P. ↓, Otero R. ↑,
61', Eduardo Vargas ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Morelos A. ⚽, Hinestroza M. (A),
74', Viveros K. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
74', Cardona E. ↓, Arce B. ↑,
78', Herazo D. ↓, Petit G. ↑,
85', Oliva C. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
85', Recoba J. ↓, Arady B. ↑,
85', Hinestroza M. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
86', Aguirre Tabares J. F. ↓, Arias J. J. ↑,
86', Morelos A. ↓, Gil Mosquera F. A. ↑,
88', Gil Mosquera F. A. 🟨,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Atlético Nacional is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Nacional won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
28.03.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Atlético Nacional	2:0 ✺
23.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
19.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportes Tolima	4:3 ✺
15.03.25	Envigado - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Atlético Nacional - América de Cali	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWTW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
12.05.21	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
28.04.21	Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional	4:4
18.03.14	Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional	0:1
11.03.14	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	2:2

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