Match Info

Copa Uruguay - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Nacional Montevideo		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	3.7	6.4
	1.52	3.85	6.55
	1.66	3.68	4.84	Watch
	1.45	4.05	6.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.57)	3.82 ↓ (4)	6.16 ↑ (5.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
60.8%

Draw
24.2%

Plaza Colonia
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

23.5%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

22.9%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.25 - Plaza Colonia (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 50%). Plaza Colonia (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', 1 - 0, Lopez N. ⚽,
75', 1 - 1, Lopez A. ⚽,
85', 1 - 2, Vergara H. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.

Nacional is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Plaza Colonia has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Nacional is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Nacional will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 28:13. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:7. (average 1.9:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 59.81%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.09.25	Nacional Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
26.08.25	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.25	Nacional Montevideo - Boston River	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWTW
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Plaza Colonia - Montevideo City Torque	2:4 ✺
23.08.25	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Plaza Colonia - Cerro	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Plaza Colonia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
22.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1
Uruguay Copa
29.10.24	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	4:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.09.23	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:0
05.07.23	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	4:1
18.02.23	Plaza Colonia - Nacional Montevideo	2:1
10.09.22	Plaza Colonia - Nacional Montevideo	1:3
09.07.22	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	3:1

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