Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 7

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Raul Orlando Lungarzo (Chivilcoy)


	Independiente Chivilcoy		Sportivo Belgrano

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.62	3.15
	2.4	2.59	3.24
	2.61	2.5	3.49	Watch
	2.4	2.63	3.1
	2.5	2.86	3.13
	2	2.95	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2)	2.69 ↓ (2.95)	3.29 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Chivilcoy
38.3%

Draw
33.9%

Sportivo Belgrano
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

30.5%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

30.8%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Chivilcoy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Chivilcoy's form might have worsened.

Sportivo Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Chivilcoy than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Chivilcoy, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Belgrano than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cordero M. (G) 3. Acuna L. 7. Aman Campos F. 9. Benitez B. 11. Borgognoni G. 4. Caceres E. 5. D'Annunzio N. 8. Hernandez Castro T. J. 2. Herrera A. 10. Retamozo L. 6. Vera A.	1. Martina L. (G) 11. Bono J. 5. Caviglia J. 8. Churchi S. 4. Ferreyra L. 3. Gancedo M. 7. Lehmann A. 9. Lesman G. 2. Paiz J. 10. Pastorelli A. 6. Pennesi T.
Substitutes
19. Berrutti B. 12. Burello A. (G) 16. Cisnero L. 15. Fernandez G. 14. Garcia F. 18. Ramirez U. 20. Rodriguez L. 17. Romero F. 13. Torres D.	13. Alessi L. 20. Arostegui J. I. 17. Bassani J. 12. Bravo P. (G) 16. Franceschi E. 15. Gimenez J. 18. Mercado E. 19. Sagristani M. 14. Vidal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 🟨,
41', Herrera A. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Lesman G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', 0 - 2, Lehmann A. ⚽,
68', 0 - 3, Mercado E. ⚽,
84', 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Chivilcoy won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Sportivo Belgrano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ind Chivilcoy could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ind Chivilcoy won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Chivilcoy won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Chivilcoy
Argentinian Torneo Federal
26.04.26	Douglas Haig - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Independiente Chivilcoy	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	3:0 ✺
29.03.26	9 de Julio - Independiente Chivilcoy	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTWWL
- Sportivo Belgrano
Argentinian Torneo Federal
26.04.26	Sportivo Belgrano - El Linqueño	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Douglas Haig	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo - Sportivo Belgrano	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Sportivo Belgrano - 9 de Julio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
16.08.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	2:3
11.07.25	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	0:0
10.05.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	1:2
23.06.24	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:0
27.04.24	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	0:2
18.09.23	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:0
23.07.23	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	1:0

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