Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Munaishy Stadium (Atyrau)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Atyrau		Turan Turkistan

	1	X	2
	1.47	3.9	5.75
	1.37	4.25	7.9	Watch
	1.41	4.09	7.52
	1.51	3.58	7.15	Watch
	1.5	3.5	5.75
	1.39	4.2	9.2	Watch
	1.69	3.59	5.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (2.13)	3.87 ↑ (3.22)	6.92 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atyrau
62.7%

Draw
23.9%

Turan Turkistan
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29.2%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

25.3%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atyrau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atyrau's performance.

Turan Turkistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Turan Turkistan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (-24.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atyrau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Turan Turkistan than the current prediction. (+17.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Turan Turkistan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Atyrau - Turan Turkistan Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Atyrau will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Turan will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atyrau: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Atyrau (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Atyrau (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Atyrau (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Atyrau (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khatkevich E. (G) 4. Afanasenko V. 33. Chunchukov T. 37. Kerimzhanov O. 3. Khadarkevich R. 5. Milojko G. 2. Ryzhuk D. 23. Sovpel V. 7. Stasevich I. (C) 18. Trufanov Y. 6. Yudenkov R.	1. Goshev E. (G) 7. Abzalov S. 77. Askarov M. 4. Cermelj L. 71. Chirkov R. 6. Darabaev A. (C) 24. Duysenbekuly K. 18. Nazymkhanov A. 15. Orynbassar R. 22. Pertsukh Y. 88. Solodovnicov N.
Substitutes
8. Abubakar R. 21. Akhaev B. 17. Dorofeev K. 10. Dzhumatov R. 11. Kayamba J. 14. Kybyray Y. 77. Smykov K. 31. Suleymen A. (G) 35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 20. Urda D. 19. Yakovlev V. 9. Zgurskiy L.	11. Abbas A. 21. Abdulla A. 30. Ignatov D. 8. Kuralbaev E. 25. Sapanov M. 19. Sarsenbay E. 16. Tokmagambetov D. (G) 48. Trifunovic V. 10. Usipkhanov R. 29. Zulfikarov A. 9. Zulfikarov B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Afanasenko V. 🟨,
5', Ryzhuk D. 🟨,
13', Milojko G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Trufanov Y. ↓, Kayamba J. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Nazymkhanov A. ⚽,
58', Nazymkhanov A. ↓, Abbas A. ↑,
64', Ryzhuk D. ↓, Dorofeev K. ↑,
64', Afanasenko V. ↓, Yakovlev V. ↑,
70', Kayamba J. ↓, Zgurskiy L. ↑,
71', Solodovnicov N. ↓, Zulfikarov B. ↑,
71', Abzalov S. ↓, Trifunovic V. ↑,
77', Chunchukov T. ↓, Dzhumatov R. ↑,
82', Goshev E. 🟨,
85', 1 - 1, Dorofeev K. ⚽, Yudenkov R. (A),
90+3', Chirkov R. ↓, Ignatov D. ↑,
90+3', Pertsukh Y. ↓, Usipkhanov R. ↑,
90+5', Abbas A. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 13 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 2.

Atyrau has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Turan has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Turan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atyrau has had a series of away games.

In this match, Atyrau is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atyrau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
03.08.25	Ordabasy - Atyrau	2:2 ✺
20.07.25	Kyzylzhar - Atyrau	0:1 ✺
05.07.25	Aktobe - Atyrau	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Atyrau - Okzhetpes	0:0 ✺
21.06.25	Zhenis - Atyrau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.5 TWLTL
- FC Turan Turkistan
Kazakh Premier League
03.08.25	Zhetysu - Turan Turkistan	1:0 ✺
27.07.25	Turan Turkistan - Ordabasy	0:4 ✺
18.07.25	Astana - Turan Turkistan	7:0 ✺
12.07.25	Turan Turkistan - Kyzylzhar	1:2 ✺
04.07.25	Kairat - Turan Turkistan	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
10.05.25	Turan Turkistan - Atyrau	1:0
Kazakh Cup
12.04.25	Turan Turkistan - Atyrau	2:0
Kazakh Premier League
04.10.24	Atyrau - Turan Turkistan	3:0
Kazakh League Cup
05.07.24	Turan Turkistan - Atyrau	0:2
Kazakh Premier League
01.07.24	Turan Turkistan - Atyrau	2:1
15.09.22	Atyrau - Turan Turkistan	0:2
27.04.22	Turan Turkistan - Atyrau	0:0

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