Match Info

A-League - Round 24

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Go Media Stadium (Auckland)

Referee: Keevers L. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Auckland FC		Melbourne Victory

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.8	2.65	Watch
	2.28	3.7	2.78	Watch
	2.36	3.9	2.86
	2.04	4.08	3.21	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.7
	2.29	3.94	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.05)	3.82 ↑ (3.52)	2.86 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auckland FC
42.1%

Draw
24.8%

Melbourne Victory
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26.3%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

27.9%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auckland FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auckland FC than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Auckland FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne Victory, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Auckland FC - Melbourne Victory Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Auckland will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Hilton J. (G) 52. Vicelich L. 23. Hall D. 4. Pijnaker N. 17. Elliot C. 6. Verstraete L. 8. Gallegos L. F. 2. Sakai H. (C) 77. Brook L. 21. Randall J. 9. Cosgrove S.	40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 21. Roderick (C) 2. Davidson J. 18. Lino F. 10. Genreau D. 8. Valadon J. 23. Jelacic K. 14. Grimaldi M. 17. Velupillay N. 44. Nduka C.
Substitutes
35. Bidois J. 57. Fitzharris V. 7. Howieson C. 18. Mckenlay F. 46. Mitchell J. 27. Rogerson L. 1. Woud M. (G)	27. D'Arrigo L. 29. Dragicevic O. 25. Duncan J. (G) 4. Jackson L. 7. Piscopo R. 3. Traore A. 9. Vergos N.
Coaches
Corica S.	Diles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Davidson J. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Lino F. ⚽, Genreau D. (A),
35', Pijnaker N. ↓, Rogerson L. ↑,
38', Brook L. 🟨,
41', Verstraete L. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Cosgrove S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 2, Velupillay N. ⚽,
59', Verstraete L. ↓, Howieson C. ↑,
59', Randall J. ↓, Fitzharris V. ↑,
60', Valadon J. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
74', Grimaldi M. ↓, Dragicevic O. ↑,
75', Velupillay N. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
79', Genreau D. 🟨,
82', 2 - 2, Brook L. ⚽,
87', Gallegos L. F. ↓, Bidois J. ↑,
87', Vicelich L. ↓, Mitchell J. ↑,
88', Corica S. 🟥,
90+2', Lino F. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
90+2', Jelacic K. ↓, Jackson L. ↑,
90+5', Bidois J. 🟨,
90+7', Jackson L. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Melbourne Victory may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Melbourne Victory has had a series of home games.

Auckland will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Auckland: De Vries F. (Calf Injury) Knowles J. (Hip Injury) Middleton O. (Knee Injury) Rutherford R. (Knee Injury) Sail O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury) Reec J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Melbourne Victory: Esposito S. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auckland won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Auckland won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Auckland FC: 14.55% Melbourne Victory: 13.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Auckland FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auckland FC
Australian A-League
03.04.26	Adelaide United - Auckland FC	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Auckland FC - Macarthur FC	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Auckland FC - Perth Glory	2:2 ✺
27.02.26	Auckland FC - Melbourne City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLWTW
- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
05.04.26	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners	4:1 ✺
15.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	2:2 ✺
27.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
18.10.25	Melbourne Victory - Auckland FC	0:0
24.05.25	Auckland FC - Melbourne Victory	0:2
17.05.25	Melbourne Victory - Auckland FC	0:1
19.04.25	Melbourne Victory - Auckland FC	0:2
31.12.24	Auckland FC - Melbourne Victory	0:0

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