Match Info

A-League - Round 23

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 3
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
	1.56	4.5	4.75	Watch
	1.55	4.45	4.95	Watch
	1.59	4.8	5.17
	1.47	5.01	5.9	Watch
	1.57	4.2	4.6
	1.64	4.62	4.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.55)	4.6 ↑ (4.56)	5.04 ↓ (5.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
60.6%

Draw
20.6%

Wellington Phoenix
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

20.8%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

20.3%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Melbourne Victory will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick (C) 18. Lino F. 10. Genreau D. 8. Valadon J. 23. Jelacic K. 64. Mata J. 17. Velupillay N. 9. Vergos N.	1. Oluwayemi J. (G) 27. Sheridan M. 15. Hughes I. 28. Tuiloma B. 12. Edwards D. 20. Najjarine R. 14. Rufer A. (C) 8. Retre P. 25. Nagasawa K. 3. Piper C. 7. Eze I.
Substitutes
11. Clarismario 27. D'Arrigo L. 2. Davidson J. 25. Duncan J. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 44. Nduka C. 7. Piscopo R.	11. Armiento C. 29. Brooke-Smith L. 5. Conchie F. 4. James M. 16. Kartum S. 30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 18. Kelly-Heald L.
Coaches
Diles A.	Greenacre C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Esposito S. ↓, Davidson J. ↑,
34', Genreau D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vergos N. ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
54', Velupillay N. 🟨,
61', Edwards D. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
68', Jelacic K. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
68', Genreau D. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
68', Velupillay N. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
73', Najjarine R. ↓, Kartum S. ↑,
76', Rufer A. 🟨,
83', Retre P. ↓, Conchie F. ↑,
84', Nagasawa K. ↓, Armiento C. ↑,
84', Piper C. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
88', Mata J. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Kartum S. ⚽, Eze I. (A),
90+1', Eze I. ↓, James M. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 4.

Melbourne Victory is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wellington's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Melbourne Victory is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: D'Arrigo L. (Leg Injury) Hamill B. (Knee Injury) Reec J. (Injury)

There will not play in Wellington: Singh S. (Inactive) Walker N. (Inactive)

We predict that Melbourne Victory will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 32:23. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:6. (average 2:0.6).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne Victory: 13.33% Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
21.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners	4:1 ✺
15.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	2:2 ✺
27.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWTTW
- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
21.03.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Wellington Phoenix - Perth Glory	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
06.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:3
29.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	5:1
12.04.25	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:3
14.02.25	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	1:0
23.11.24	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	1:0
18.05.24	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	1:2 ET
12.05.24	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	0:0

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