Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: WWK Arena (Augsburg)

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Augsburg		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.58	3.25	2.82	Watch
	2.62	3.32	2.75	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.62	3.33	2.87	Watch
	2.66	3.14	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.87)	3.23 ↓ (3.39)	2.79 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Augsburg
36.6%

Draw
29.4%

Freiburg
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

28.1%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

28.7%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Augsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	18.5%	59.3%

Augsburg - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Augsburg will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%). Freiburg will win (votes: 16 - 59.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 40.8% – 77.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 2 - 20%). Freiburg (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Augsburg (1.46) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Augsburg (2.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Freiburg (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dahmen F. (G) 40. Banks N. 31. Schlotterbeck K. 14. Keitel Y. 19. Fellhauer R. 17. Jakic K. 4. Massengo H. 13. Giannoulis D. 32. Rieder F. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 38. Gregoritsch M.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 29. Treu P. 9. Holer L. 32. Grifo V. 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
9. Essende S. 30. Kade A. 36. Komur M. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 3. Pedersen M. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 21. Ribeiro R. 27. Wolf M. 16. Zesiger C.	20. Adamu J. 19. Beste J. 30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 37. Rosenfelder M. 7. Scherhant D. 14. Suzuki Y.
Coaches
Baum M.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Jakic K. ↓, Rexhbecaj E. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Claude-Maurice A. ⚽,
49', 2 - 0, Rexhbecaj E. ⚽,
53', Keitel Y. 🟨,
54', Manzambi J. 🟨,
56', Makengo J. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
56', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
56', Holer L. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
58', Banks N. 🟨,
60', 2 - 1, Suzuki Y. ⚽,
62', 2 - 2, Matanovic I. ⚽,
62', Gregoritsch M. 🟨,
63', Giannoulis D. ↓, Pedersen M. ↑,
63', Keitel Y. ↓, Zesiger C. ↑,
71', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
75', Rieder F. ↓, Kade A. ↑,
80', Kubler L. ↓, Rosenfelder M. ↑,
82', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
88', Massengo H. ↓, Wolf M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 2.

In recent matches, Augsburg has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Freiburg is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Freiburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Augsburg: Gouweleeuw J. (Knee Injury) Matsima C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Lienhart P. (Abdominal strain)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Ginter M. (Illness) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:38. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Augsburg won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.75% Augsburg: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
6	Augsburg	5	2	2	1	13:8	5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
15.01.26	Augsburg - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Augsburg	4:0 ✺
20.12.25	Augsburg - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Augsburg	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLTLW
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	3:4 ✺
14.12.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Freiburg - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.08.25	Freiburg - Augsburg	1:3
02.03.25	Augsburg - Freiburg	0:0
19.10.24	Freiburg - Augsburg	3:1
25.02.24	Augsburg - Freiburg	2:1
01.10.23	Freiburg - Augsburg	2:0
28.01.23	Freiburg - Augsburg	3:1
06.08.22	Augsburg - Freiburg	0:4

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