Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 22

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Guillermo Slowing (Amatitlan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Tigo Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Aurora		Mictlán

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.2	3.8
	1.89	3.26	3.89
	3.63	3.35	2.02	Watch
	3.5	3	2
	1.84	3.22	4.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.11)	3.21 ↑ (3.1)	3.15 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aurora
38.5%

Draw
30.5%

Mictlán
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

29.2%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

28.3%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aurora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Mictlán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aurora, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mictlán than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Aurora - Mictlán Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Aurora will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Mictlán will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mictlán: 68.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sanchez L. (G) 49. Campos G. 15. Garcia K. 11. Ibarguen E. 5. Lemus J. 10. Lovato N. 52. Mingorance P. 4. Monterroso C. 9. Ruiz D. 30. Soriano B. 20. Vivas J.	1. Faust J. (G) 29. Fajardo W. 30. Folleco R. 3. Herrarte J. 24. Herrarte K. 4. Meza P. . Racancoj J. 44. Ramirez W. 31. Rivas B. 7. Rodriguez J. 19. Salguero O.
Substitutes
23. Alvarez J. 17. Bajan D. 13. Galindo A. 64. Gonzalez L. 53. Hernandez Lainfiesta M. S. 7. Motta P. 1. Navas D. (G) 3. Soriano J. 31. Urias V.	. Betancourth R. 80. Chavasco G. 88. Chinchilla C. 9. Colon S. 26. Escobar J. 23. Figueroa J. (G) 77. Lemus M. 5. Menendez B. 99. Rigoberto R. D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Ibarguen E. ⚽,
24', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Herrarte J. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
46', Rivas B. ↓, Chavasco G. ↑,
49', Folleco R. 🟨,
61', Racancoj J. 🟨,
63', 🟨,
64', Folleco R. 🟥,
65', Herrarte K. 🟨,
65', 🟨,
65', Mingorance P. 🟨,
66', 🟨,
66', Garcia K. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Meza P. ⚽,
73', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
88', Mingorance P. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,

Preview

Aurora is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mictlán is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Mictlán might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aurora won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Aurora won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Aurora - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 42.87%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora FC
Guatemala Liga Nacional
19.04.26	Deportivo Mixco - Aurora	4:0 ✺
15.04.26	Aurora - Marquense	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Comunicaciones - Aurora	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Aurora - Antigua GFC	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Cobán Imperial - Aurora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLLT
- Deportivo Mictlán
Guatemala Liga Nacional
19.04.26	Mictlán - Xelajú	2:3 ✺
16.04.26	Mictlán - Deportivo Mixco	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Marquense - Mictlán	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	Mictlán - Comunicaciones	1:1 ✺
01.04.26	Antigua GFC - Mictlán	8:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
11.03.26	Mictlán - Aurora	2:0
22.11.25	Mictlán - Aurora	4:0
22.10.25	Aurora - Mictlán	3:2

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