Match Info

MLS Next Pro

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Parmer Filed (Austin, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	Onefootball


	Austin II		Tacoma Defiance

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.02	3.5	3.2	Watch
	2.02	3.55	3.33
	2.04	3.54	3.37	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.25
	1.91	3.54	3.39	Watch
	1.72	3.75	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.72)	3.52 ↓ (3.75)	3.4 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austin II
47.1%

Draw
26%

Tacoma Defiance
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

24.1%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

23%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austin II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Austin II's form might have worsened.

Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin II than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Austin II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Austin II - Tacoma Defiance Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Austin II will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lauta E. (G) 14. Ciesla D. 4. Watt E. 5. Bery J. 18. Cayelli P. 38. Torres E. 6. Barro D. 10. Alastuey J. (C) 32. Burton M. 9. Danciutiu V. 37. Feliciano L.	56. Newman N. (G) 48. Phoenix C. 53. Sandnes G. 39. Hawkins S. 33. Baker C. 32. Gnaulati X. 40. O'Neill M. (C) 84. Gaffney C. 36. Tsukanome Y. 42. Jauregui R. 79. Gonzalez L.
Substitutes
7. Abarca D. 31. Aristizabal N. (G) 20. Badawiya M. 23. Che N. 21. Dobrijevic S. 8. Gonzalez A. 16. Ruszel M. 22. Sall I. 2. Thomas R.	81. Bronnik M. 30. Carli E. 62. Emert M. 43. Hassan O. 34. Robles D. 41. Shour M. (G) 58. Winslow J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Barro D. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
53', Hawkins S. 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, Danciutiu V. ⚽, Burton M. (A),
58', 2 - 0, Alastuey J. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Burton M. ↓, Ruszel M. ↑,
59', Feliciano L. ↓, Dobrijevic S. ↑,
59', Danciutiu V. ↓, Sall I. ↑,
62', Baker C. ↓, Emert M. ↑,
62', Tsukanome Y. ↓, Carli E. ↑,
69', Gonzalez L. ↓, Bronnik M. ↑,
70', Gonzalez A. ↓, Badawiya M. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Ciesla D. ⚽, Sall I. (A),
80', Gaffney C. ↓, Hassan O. ↑,
83', Ruszel M. 🟨,
90+3', Badawiya M. 🟨,
90+3', Jauregui R. ↓, Robles D. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Austin II won 3.

Austin II is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tacoma's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Austin II may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Austin II is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Austin II won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Austin II won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austin FC II
MLS Next Pro
02.05.26	North Texas - Austin II	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Ventura County - Austin II	1:2 penalties ✺
12.04.26	Austin II - Houston Dynamo 2	1:2 penalties ✺
22.03.26	Tacoma Defiance - Austin II	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Austin II - North Texas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWW
- Tacoma Defiance
MLS Next Pro
03.05.26	Sporting Kansas City II - Tacoma Defiance	2:3 penalties ✺
26.04.26	Tacoma Defiance - Los Angeles 2	4:1 ✺
17.04.26	Tacoma Defiance - St. Louis City 2	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Vancouver Whitecaps 2 - Tacoma Defiance	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS Next Pro
22.03.26	Tacoma Defiance - Austin II	0:1
12.09.25	Tacoma Defiance - Austin II	1:2
15.03.24	Austin II - Tacoma Defiance	1:3
08.10.23	Tacoma Defiance - Austin II	0:1
25.06.23	Tacoma Defiance - Austin II	1:0
07.04.23	Austin II - Tacoma Defiance	2:1

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