Match Info

MLS Next Pro

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Starfire Sports (Tukwila, WA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Next Pro
World	Onefootball


	Tacoma Defiance		Ventura County

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.7	2.75
	2.15	3.75	2.78	Watch
	2.16	3.8	2.91
	2.21	3.61	2.94	Watch
	2.1	3.3	2.8
	2.13	3.54	2.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.33)	3.62 ↓ (3.83)	2.84 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacoma Defiance
42.7%

Draw
25.2%

Ventura County
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

24.2%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

23.5%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Ventura County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ventura County than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Anchor M. (C) 47. Alvarez D. 53. Sandnes G. 4. Sailor R. 48. Phoenix C. 84. Gaffney C. 40. O'Neill M. 30. Carli E. 32. Gnaulati X. 42. Jauregui R. 36. Tsukanome Y.	41. Conlon S. (C) 88. Vanney M. 73. Martinez E. 60. Hernandez S. 50. Dalgado R. 87. Arnold G. 64. Pepe 92. Luna I. 45. Garcia V. 95. Preston E. 57. Placias J.
Substitutes
81. Bronnik M. 80. Brown D. 43. Hassan O. 34. Robles D. 41. Shour M. (G) 58. Winslow J.	61. Gozdieski C. 94. McLean M. 75. Medina A. 42. Rhodes J. (G) 83. Villatoro A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Tsukanome Y. ⚽, Jauregui R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sailor R. ↓, Winslow J. ↑,
54', Phoenix C. 🟨,
56', Alvarez D. 🟨,
69', Carli E. ↓, Hassan O. ↑,
69', Luna I. ↓, Medina A. ↑,
72', Vanney M. 🟨,
74', Sandnes G. ↓, Robles D. ↑,
83', Tsukanome Y. ↓, Bronnik M. ↑,
86', Dalgado R. ↓, Villatoro A. ↑,
90+2', Placias J. ↓, Gozdieski C. ↑,
90+3', Anchor M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Ventura County has had a series of away games.

Tacoma is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 2.4:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tacoma won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 2.8:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Tacoma Defiance - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.82%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacoma Defiance
MLS Next Pro
17.05.26	Vancouver Whitecaps 2 - Tacoma Defiance	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Austin II - Tacoma Defiance	3:0 ✺
03.05.26	Sporting Kansas City II - Tacoma Defiance	2:3 penalties ✺
26.04.26	Tacoma Defiance - Los Angeles 2	4:1 ✺
17.04.26	Tacoma Defiance - St. Louis City 2	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWWL
- Ventura County FC
MLS Next Pro
16.05.26	Los Angeles 2 - Ventura County	3:2 ✺
10.05.26	Portland Timbers 2 - Ventura County	3:4 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Sporting Kansas City II - Ventura County	0:2 ✺
01.05.26	Ventura County - San Jose Earthquakes 2	1:3 ✺
26.04.26	St. Louis City 2 - Ventura County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS Next Pro
29.03.26	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	0:1
01.08.25	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	4:6
02.05.25	Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance	1:2
07.03.25	Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance	3:2
20.10.24	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	4:0
18.08.24	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	3:2 penalties
31.05.24	Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance	3:2

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