Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
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Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App
Montenegro	Arena Premium 3
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Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Auxerre		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.7
	2.08	3.35	3.7
	2.08	3.45	3.89
	2.07	3.44	3.63	Watch
	2	3.4	3.6
	2.08	3.68	3.81	Watch
	2.08	3.35	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.83)	3.43 ↓ (3.79)	3.72 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Auxerre
46.5%

Draw
27.8%

Saint-Étienne
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

25.1%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

24.9%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Auxerre's form might have worsened.

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.6%	17.4%	7%

Auxerre - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: 83 users predict this event. Auxerre will win (votes: 64 - 77.1%). Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 5 - 6%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 16.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Auxerre: 68.1% – 86.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Leon D. (G) 26. Joly P. 20. Diomande S. 4. Jubal Junior (C) 92. Akpa C. 14. Mensah G. 10. Perrin G. 42. Owusu E. 80. Massengo H. 25. Traore H. J. 17. Sinayoko L.	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 8. Appiah D. 21. Batubinsika D. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 37. Amougou M. 4. Ekwah P. 26. Fomba L. 20. Boakye A. 32. Stassin L. 22. Davitashvili Z.
Substitutes
6. Agouzoul S. 19. Aye F. 9. Bair T. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 32. Glossoa N. 23. Hoever K. 45. Onaiwu A. 77. Zossou A.	5. Abdelhamid Y. 23. Briancon A. 18. Cafaro M. 17. Cornud P. 31. Fall C. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 63. N'Guessan D. 10. Tardieu F.
Coaches
Pelissier C.	Horneland E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Traore H. J. ⚽, Owusu E. (A),
45', 1 - 1, Stassin L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Fomba L. ↓, Tardieu F. ↑,
68', Jubal Junior 🟨,
68', Sinayoko L. ↓, Bair T. ↑,
69', Joly P. ↓, Hoever K. ↑,
83', Perrin G. ↓, Onaiwu A. ↑,
84', Massengo H. 🟨,
85', Boakye A. ↓, Cafaro M. ↑,
85', Ekwah P. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
87', Traore H. J. ↓, Aye F. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Auxerre won 2.

The competitors look crappy now.

Auxerre will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly L. (Knee Injury) Danois K. (Muscle Injury) Jubal Junior (Injury) N'Gatta A. L. (Muscle Injury) Osho G. (Red Card)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bouchouari B. (Yellow Cards) Macon Y. (Knee Injury) Monconduit T. (Leg Injury) Moueffek A. (Illness) Mouton L. (Yellow Cards) Old B. (Knee Injury) Sissoko I. (Red Card) Wadji I. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Auxerre won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.7:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Auxerre won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:3 (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
19.01.25	Angers - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
10.01.25	Auxerre - Lille	0:0 ✺
05.01.25	Strasbourg - Auxerre	3:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Auxerre - Dunkerque	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.24	Auxerre - Lens	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTLLT
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
19.01.25	Saint-Étienne - Nantes	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
04.01.25	Saint-Étienne - Reims	3:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Saint-Étienne - Olympique Marseille	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.24	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
05.10.24	Saint-Étienne - Auxerre	3:1
French Ligue 2
09.03.24	Saint-Étienne - Auxerre	1:0
11.11.23	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	5:2
French Ligue 1
29.05.22	Saint-Étienne - Auxerre	1:2 penalties
26.05.22	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	1:1
Coupe De France
01.02.17	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	3:0 ET
French Ligue 1
25.02.12	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	0:0

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