Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 15

Date: 13 December 2024, Friday

Location: Stadium Municipal (Toulouse)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA 9, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
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Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
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Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Peru	Disney+
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Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	ESPN 4 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Toulouse		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.75	8	Watch
	1.39	4.8	8
	1.39	4.7	8.3	Watch
	1.4	4.87	8.86
	1.41	4.8	8.62	Watch
	1.4	4.6	8
	1.44	5.04	8.3	Watch
	1.39	4.7	8.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.49)	4.78 ↑ (4.46)	8.3 ↑ (6.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
68.4%

Draw
20%

Saint-Étienne
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

21.3%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

20.5%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.4%	10.4%	4.2%

Toulouse - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: Toulouse will win (40 of 47 users predict this - 85.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.93% – 95.29%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 15. Donnum A. 23. Casseres C. 8. Sierro V. (C) 17. Suazo G. 80. Babicka S. 7. Aboukhlal Z. 13. King J.	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 8. Appiah D. 21. Batubinsika D. 5. Abdelhamid Y. 19. Petrot L. 17. Cornud P. 6. Bouchouari B. 4. Ekwah P. 14. Mouton L. 22. Davitashvili Z. 32. Stassin L.
Substitutes
6. Akdag U. 30. Dominguez A. (G) 10. Gboho Y. 5. Genreau D. 12. Kamanzi W. 9. Magri F. 22. Messali R. 20. Schmidt N. 21. Zajc M.	39. Aiki A. 37. Amougou M. 31. Fall C. 26. Fomba L. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 45. Pedro K. 9. Sissoko I. 10. Tardieu F.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Dall'Oglio O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Bouchouari B. 🟨,
19', Sierro V. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', Abdelhamid Y. 🟨,
49', King J. 🟨,
53', 0 - 1, Stassin L. ⚽, Appiah D. (A),
55', 1 - 1, Babicka S. ⚽, Suazo G. (A),
60', Babicka S. ↓, Gboho Y. ↑,
61', Appiah D. 🟨,
61', Stassin L. 🟨,
63', Casseres C. 🟨,
64', Mouton L. ↓, Amougou M. ↑,
76', Davitashvili Z. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,
76', Stassin L. ↓, Sissoko I. ↑,
78', King J. ↓, Magri F. ↑,
78', Sierro V. ↓, Schmidt N. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Aboukhlal Z. ⚽, Schmidt N. (A),
89', Ekwah P. ↓, Tardieu F. ↑,
89', Cornud P. ↓, Fomba L. ↑,
90', Donnum A. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
90', Aboukhlal Z. ↓, Genreau D. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Toulouse won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Toulouse is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Toulouse: Nicolaisen R. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Briancon A. (Knee Injury) Cafaro M. (Red Card) Macon Y. (Knee Injury) Monconduit T. (Thigh Injury) Nade M. (Knee Injury) Old B. (Knee Injury) Wadji I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Saint-Étienne: Boakye A. (Muscle Injury) Moueffek A. (Knock)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Toulouse won 4 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:19 (average 0.9:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Toulouse won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:10 (average 0.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
07.12.24	Monaco - Toulouse	2:0 ✺
01.12.24	Toulouse - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
22.11.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	3:0 ✺
10.11.24	Rennes - Toulouse	0:2 ✺
03.11.24	Toulouse - Reims	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWLWW
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
08.12.24	Saint-Étienne - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
30.11.24	Rennes - Saint-Étienne	5:0 ✺
23.11.24	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Lyon - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
02.11.24	Saint-Étienne - Strasbourg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
15.09.19	Saint-Étienne - Toulouse	2:2
28.04.19	Saint-Étienne - Toulouse	2:0
25.09.18	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	2:3
14.01.18	Saint-Étienne - Toulouse	2:0
29.10.17	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	0:0
29.01.17	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	0:3
28.08.16	Saint-Étienne - Toulouse	0:0

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