Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Auxerre		Lille

	1	X	2
	4	3.2	2	Watch
	3.95	3.25	2.02
	4.09	3.32	2.08
	3.96	3.33	2	Watch
	3.8	3.1	1.95
	4.32	3.43	2.03	Watch
	4	3.33	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↓ (4.36)	3.28 ↓ (3.76)	2.01 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auxerre
23.7%

Draw
29%

Lille
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

25.2%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4%

24.8%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auxerre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	22.2%	72.2%

Auxerre - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Auxerre will win (votes: 2 - 5.6%). Lille will win (votes: 26 - 72.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 57.6% – 86.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Auxerre (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Lille (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Leon D. (C) 27. Sy L. 92. Akpa C. 20. Diomande S. 22. Oppegard F. 17. El Azzouzi O. 34. Matondo R. 5. Danois K. 7. Casimir J. 19. Danny Namaso 10. Sinayoko L.	1. Ozer B. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 21. Andre B. (C) 6. Bentaleb N. 8. Mbappe E. 10. Haraldsson H. 11. Sahraoui O. 9. Giroud O.
Substitutes
21. Coulibaly L. 40. De Percin T. (G) 36. Devernois T. 18. Diousse A. 9. Mara S. 14. Mensah G. 23. Osman I. 29. Senaya M. 4. Sierralta F.	16. Bodart A. (G) 14. Broholm M. 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 18. Mbemba Ch. 17. Mukau N. 28. Raghouber U. 22. Santos T.
Coaches
Pelissier C.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Haraldsson H. ⚽,
17', Casimir J. 🟨,
38', Ngoy N. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', Matondo R. ↓, Mara S. ↑,
46', Sahraoui O. ↓, Mbemba Ch. ↑,
49', Akpa C. 🟨,
50', Mandi A. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Danois K. (A),
60', Akpa C. 🟨,
63', Casimir J. ↓, Diousse A. ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Mbemba Ch. (Own goal),
74', Meunier T. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
74', Haraldsson H. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
75', Giroud O. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
77', 2 - 2, Bentaleb N. ⚽,
80', 2 - 3, Diaoune S. ⚽,
81', Oppegard F. ↓, Mensah G. ↑,
82', Correia F. 🟨,
83', 3 - 3, Sinayoko L. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Mbappe E. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
86', 3 - 4, Andre B. ⚽, Perraud R. (A),
88', Perraud R. 🟥,
88', El Azzouzi O. 🟥,
90', Danois K. ↓, Coulibaly L. ↑,
90+3', Coulibaly L. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 0.

Auxerre has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lille is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Auxerre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lille is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Owusu E. (Injury) Siwe T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Alexsandro (Thigh Injury) Bouaddi A. (Red Card) Caillard M. (Elbow Injury) Igamane H. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Auxerre: Coulibaly L. (Ankle Injury) Diomande S. (Inactive) Mensah G. (Inactive) Osman I. (Inactive) Senaya M. (Injury) Sierralta F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lille: Fernandez-Pardo M. (Inactive) Verdonk C. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Auxerre won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
07.12.25	Auxerre - Metz	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Paris FC - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Auxerre - Lyon	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Angers - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTTLL
- OSC Lille
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Young Boys - Lille	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
05.12.25	Lille - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Le Havre - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Lille - Dinamo Zagreb	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.11.25	Lille - Paris FC	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
20.04.25	Lille - Auxerre	3:1
10.01.25	Auxerre - Lille	0:0
22.04.23	Auxerre - Lille	1:1
07.08.22	Lille - Auxerre	4:1
Coupe De France
18.12.21	Lille - Auxerre	3:1
French Coupe de la Ligue
29.10.13	Lille - Auxerre	0:1 ET
French Ligue 1
03.03.12	Lille - Auxerre	2:2

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