Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 30

Date: 4 October 2024, Friday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Referee: Pereira Sampiao S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Avaí		Brusque

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	5	Watch
	1.73	3.1	5.25
	1.75	3.3	5
	1.84	3.05	5.76
	1.88	3.09	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.2	5
	1.77	3.25	5.2	Watch
	1.77	3.1	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.6)	3.17 ↓ (3.35)	5.15 ↓ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
52.4%

Draw
29.5%

Brusque
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

26.8%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

26.1%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Brusque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avaí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Avaí - Brusque Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Brusque will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avaí: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 14. Vilar 3. Tiago Pagnussat 6. Willian Maranhao 77. Ze Ricardo 72. Rodrigo Santos 21. Pedro Castro 8. Giovanni 11. Mauricio Garcez 9. Vagner Love (C)	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 97. Mateus Pivo 3. Ianson 4. Wallace (C) 6. Torres J. 5. Rodolfo Potiguar 28. Paulinho 14. Gonzalez A. 27. Diego Mathias 9. Pollero R. 10. Dentinho
Substitutes
99. Ademilson 5. Alan 78. Andrey 20. Gaspar 19. Joao Paulo 95. Jonathan Costa 93. Judson 2. Kevin 25. Natanael 66. Otavio Passos (G) 27. Pedrinho 28. Ronaldo Henrique	22. Cristovam 11. Diego Tavares 7. Dionisio 12. Gabriel Pinheiro 35. Georgemy (G) 18. Keke 33. Madison 26. Marcelo Nunes 19. Marcos Serrato 77. Ocampo M. 80. Osman 94. Paulinho Moccelin
Coaches
Moreira E.	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Cesar Augusto 🟨,
28', Dentinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Vagner Love ↓, Ademilson ↑,
61', Mauricio Garcez ↓, Gaspar ↑,
71', Dentinho ↓, Paulinho Moccelin ↑,
71', Pollero R. ↓, Osman ↑,
72', Ianson 🟨,
83', Gonzalez A. ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
83', Diego Mathias ↓, Marcos Serrato ↑,
84', Giovanni ↓, Andrey ↑,
84', Pedro Castro ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
89', Willian Maranhao ↓, Natanael ↑,
90+2', Paulinho ↓, Gabriel Pinheiro ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avaí won 0.

Avaí is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Brusque is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Avaí is a favorite.

There will not play in Avaí: Hygor (Injury) Mario Sergio (Injury)

There are questionable in Avaí: Igor Bohn (Injury) Jean Lucas (Injury) Roberto Rosa (Injury)

There are questionable in Brusque: Marcelo Nunes (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Avaí won 5 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18:17 (average 0.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:9 (average 0.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.24	Guarani - Avaí	0:0 ✺
22.09.24	Chapecoense - Avaí	1:0 ✺
17.09.24	Avaí - Ituano	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Goiás - Avaí	2:1 ✺
07.09.24	Avaí - Sport Recife	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLWLL
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie B
27.09.24	Ceará - Brusque	1:0 ✺
23.09.24	Brusque - Amazonas	1:0 ✺
17.09.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Brusque	1:0 ✺
14.09.24	Brusque - Vila Nova	3:1 ✺
07.09.24	Brusque - Santos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.06.24	Brusque - Avaí	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
23.03.24	Avaí - Brusque	2:2
20.03.24	Brusque - Avaí	2:0
24.02.24	Avaí - Brusque	0:1
11.02.23	Avaí - Brusque	1:1
19.03.22	Brusque - Avaí	0:0
13.03.22	Avaí - Brusque	1:1

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