Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 25

Date: 7 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Brusque		Santos

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.5	1.7	Watch
	5	3.2	1.71
	5	3.4	1.72
	6.02	3.46	1.72
	5.06	3.33	1.76	Watch
	5	3.4	1.7
	5.18	3.4	1.73	Watch
	5	3.4	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.19 ↑ (3.88)	3.39 ↑ (3.27)	1.72 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brusque
18%

Draw
27.6%

Santos
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

28.2%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

27.6%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brusque's form might have worsened.

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brusque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	33.3%	41.7%

Brusque - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Brusque will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Santos will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 97. Mateus Pivo 2. Everton Alemao 4. Wallace 21. Luiz Henrique 30. Lorran 19. Marcos Serrato 14. Gonzalez A. 94. Paulinho Moccelin 17. Guilherme Queiroz 77. Ocampo M.	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 3. Hayner 32. Jair 4. Gil 31. Escobar G. 5. Joao Schmidt 21. Diego Pituca 20. Giuliano 66. Laquintana I. 19. Wendell 11. Guilherme
Substitutes
70. Cauari 11. Diego Tavares 12. Gabriel Pinheiro 35. Georgemy (G) 3. Ianson 8. Jhemerson 18. Keke 80. Osman 28. Paulinho Henrique 99. Robinho 5. Rodolfo Potiguar 16. Torres J.	25. Alison Lopes 81. Arce B. 9. Furch J. 15. Joao Basso 22. Otero R. 88. Patrick 18. Renan (G) 29. Rodrigo Ferreira 23. Sandry 37. Serginho 33. Souza 27. Willian Bigode
Coaches
Luizinho Vieira	Fabio Carille

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Luiz Henrique 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Wendell ⚽,
12', Paulinho Moccelin 🟨,
28', Hayner 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gonzalez A. ↓, Paulinho Henrique ↑,
47', Ocampo M. 🟨,
57', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Robinho ↑,
59', Laquintana I. ↓, Otero R. ↑,
71', Giuliano ↓, Patrick ↑,
71', Lorran ↓, Jhemerson ↑,
71', Luiz Henrique ↓, Torres J. ↑,
72', Hayner ↓, Rodrigo Ferreira ↑,
81', Ocampo M. ↓, Cauari ↑,
86', Wendell ↓, Furch J. ↑,
87', Guilherme ↓, Willian Bigode ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Brusque is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Santos is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Brusque could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santos is a favorite.

There will not play in Brusque: Keke (Injury) Marcelo Nunes (Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Injury) Joao Paulo (Injury) Kevyson (Injury) Rodrigo Falcao (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Brusque won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie B
02.09.24	Operário Ferroviario - Brusque	0:0 ✺
27.08.24	Brusque - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
21.08.24	Goiás - Brusque	4:1 ✺
18.08.24	Brusque - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Mirassol - Brusque	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLLL
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.24	Santos - Ponte Preta	2:2 ✺
24.08.24	Santos - Amazonas	0:0 ✺
21.08.24	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Santos - Avaí	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Paysandu - Santos	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.05.24	Santos - Brusque	4:0

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