Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 26

Date: 14 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Brusque		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.55	Watch
	2.95	2.8	2.5
	3.1	2.85	2.55
	3.24	2.84	2.65
	3.18	2.74	2.6	Watch
	3.1	2.88	2.45
	3.11	2.84	2.55	Watch
	3.1	2.85	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.65)	2.84 ↓ (2.94)	2.55 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brusque
30.2%

Draw
33.1%

Vila Nova
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

31.7%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

32.1%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brusque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Brusque - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Brusque will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 97. Mateus Pivo 2. Everton Alemao 4. Wallace (C) 16. Torres J. 27. Diego Mathias 5. Rodolfo Potiguar 28. Paulinho 14. Gonzalez A. 10. Dentinho 17. Guilherme Queiroz	26. Denis Junior (G) 2. Elias 8. Ralf (C) 4. Jemmes 14. Rhuan 5. Cristiano 15. Joao Victor 27. Igor Henrique 29. Junior Todinho 19. Henrique Almeida 11. Alesson
Substitutes
11. Diego Tavares 7. Dionisio 12. Gabriel Pinheiro 35. Georgemy (G) 3. Ianson 18. Keke 6. Lima G. 30. Lorran 33. Madison 77. Ocampo M. 80. Osman 99. Robinho	22. Apodi 18. Arilson 23. Dankler 9. Denilson 7. Emerson Urso 21. Gabriel Silva 30. Halls (G) 20. Joao Lucas 3. Juan Quintero 10. Luciano Naninho 6. Silva A.
Coaches
Marcelo Cabo	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Dentinho ⚽,
4', Everton Alemao ↓, Ianson ↑,
23', Mateus Pivo ↓, Lorran ↑,
29', Paulinho 🟨,
38', Joao Victor 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Joao Victor ↓, Arilson ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Diego Mathias ⚽, Guilherme Queiroz (A),
50', Junior Todinho 🟨,
60', Junior Todinho ↓, Denilson ↑,
60', Henrique Almeida ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
63', Gonzalez A. 🟨,
66', Torres J. 🟨,
68', Dentinho ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
68', Gonzalez A. ↓, Madison ↑,
70', Everton Alemao 🟨,
70', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Keke ↑,
74', Rhuan ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
74', Cristiano ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Elias ⚽, Alesson (A),
86', 3 - 1, Keke ⚽,
89', Joao Lucas 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brusque won 2.

Brusque is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vila Nova is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Brusque could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Brusque: Marcelo Nunes (Injury)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Luciano Naninho (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Brusque won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Brusque won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie B
07.09.24	Brusque - Santos	0:1 ✺
02.09.24	Operário Ferroviario - Brusque	0:0 ✺
27.08.24	Brusque - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
21.08.24	Goiás - Brusque	4:1 ✺
18.08.24	Brusque - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LTWLL
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
04.09.24	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
31.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
25.08.24	Vila Nova - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
20.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	2:3 ✺
16.08.24	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.05.24	Vila Nova - Brusque	2:2
17.09.22	Brusque - Vila Nova	0:1
07.06.22	Vila Nova - Brusque	0:2
24.10.21	Brusque - Vila Nova	2:3
21.07.21	Vila Nova - Brusque	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
02.01.21	Vila Nova - Brusque	0:3
26.12.20	Brusque - Vila Nova	0:0

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