Match Info

Date: 16 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)


	Avaí		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.3	1.95	Watch
	3.9	3.3	1.98
	4.1	3.35	1.97
	3.9	3.25	1.94
	4.27	3.35	2.01
	3.7	3.2	2	Watch
	4.05	3.42	1.92	Watch
	3.85	3.2	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.45)	3.3 ↑ (3.2)	1.96 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
23.5%

Draw
28.5%

Fluminense
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

29%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

28.5%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.9%	14.8%	59.3%

Avaí - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Fluminense will win (votes: 16 - 59.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 40.8% – 77.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification)).

Avaí has the most likely position - 19 (62.94%), has project points - 34, has currently - 28, has a very good chance of relegated (96%), has not chance of win league.

Fluminense has the most likely position - 5 (29.77%), has project points - 62, has currently - 51, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 43, very small importance 8, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avaí won 3.

Avaí is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Fluminense is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Fluminense is a favorite.

There will not play in Avaí: Bressan (Injury) Diego Matos (Injury) Guerrero P. (Injury) Muriqui (Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: Matheus Ferraz (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Avaí won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie A
09.10.22	Fortaleza - Avaí	2:0 ✺
06.10.22	Avaí - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
01.10.22	Avaí - Atlético Goianiense	1:2 ✺
25.09.22	São Paulo - Avaí	4:0 ✺
17.09.22	Avaí - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLLLW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
09.10.22	Fluminense - América Mineiro	0:2 ✺
05.10.22	Atlético Goianiense - Fluminense	3:2 ✺
01.10.22	Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
28.09.22	Fluminense - Juventude	4:0 ✺
18.09.22	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.06.22	Fluminense - Avaí	2:0
01.12.19	Avaí - Fluminense	1:1
02.09.19	Fluminense - Avaí	0:1
Copa do Brasil
15.03.18	Avaí - Fluminense	1:0
01.03.18	Fluminense - Avaí	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
15.10.17	Fluminense - Avaí	1:0
21.06.17	Avaí - Fluminense	0:3

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