Match Info

Date: 25 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Morumbi (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)


	São Paulo		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	8
	1.41	4.6	7.75
	1.4	4.25	8
	1.39	4.4	7.4
	1.41	4.65	8.69
				Watch
	1.38	4.7	8.1	Watch
	1.38	4.4	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.36)	4.48 ↑ (4.35)	7.88 ↓ (9.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
67.1%

Draw
21%

Avaí
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

21.4%

10.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.1%

20.9%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.9%	10.8%	24.3%

São Paulo - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 24 - 64.9%). Avaí will win (votes: 9 - 24.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 49.5% – 80.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

São Paulo has the most likely position - 8 (14.75%), has project points - 53, has currently - 34, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Avaí has the most likely position - 18 (24.87%), has project points - 38, has currently - 28, has a good chance of relegated (66%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 47, importance 34, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

São Paulo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match São Paulo is certain favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Anderson (Injury) Arboleda R. (Injury) Caio (Knee Injury) Walce (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-5.

Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
18.09.22	Ceará - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.09.22	Flamengo - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.09.22	São Paulo - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.22	São Paulo - Atlético Goianiense	3:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.09.22	Cuiabá - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTWT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie A
17.09.22	Avaí - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
11.09.22	Avaí - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
03.09.22	Juventude - Avaí	1:1 ✺
27.08.22	Coritiba - Avaí	1:0 ✺
22.08.22	Avaí - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.06.22	Avaí - São Paulo	1:1
20.10.19	São Paulo - Avaí	1:0
08.06.19	Avaí - São Paulo	0:0
20.08.17	Avaí - São Paulo	1:1
22.05.17	São Paulo - Avaí	2:0
20.09.15	Avaí - São Paulo	2:1
21.06.15	São Paulo - Avaí	1:1

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