Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 15

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Avaí		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.71	3.3	4.8
	1.68	3.45	5.15
	1.7	3.5	5.84
				Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.8
	1.73	3.54	4.98	Watch
	1.72	3.35	4.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.7)	3.43 ↑ (3.24)	5.04 ↑ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
54.5%

Draw
27.1%

Paysandu
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

27.3%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

25.8%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Avaí - Paysandu Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Avaí (1.90) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Avaí will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Igor Bohn (G) 2. Railan 95. Jonathan Costa 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 33. Mario Sergio 5. Gustavo Barreto 8. Joao Vitor 78. Andrey 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 94. Emerson Negueba 99. Cleber	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 6. Thalisson 4. Luan Freitas 5. Novillo J. 16. Reverson 28. Leandro Vilela (C) 25. Ronaldo Henrique 29. Anderson Leite 99. Vinicius Faria 9. Diogo Oliveira 11. Marlon Douglas
Substitutes
11. Alef Manga 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 36. DG 7. Hygor 80. JP 32. Leo Reis 90. Mendes 35. Pedrao 41. Thayllon 34. Wanderson 4. Weverton 77. Ze Ricardo	8. Andre Lima 21. Bryan Borges 20. Denner 36. Kevyn 30. Marcelinho 13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 35. Mauricio Antonio 19. Petterson Novaes 27. Ramon Martinez 44. Thiago Heleno 26. Wendel
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Claudinei Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Wendel ↑,
44', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Bryan Borges ↑,
46', Mario Sergio ↓, Alef Manga ↑,
64', Gustavo Barreto ↓, JP ↑,
65', Emerson Negueba ↓, Thayllon ↑,
65', Anderson Leite 🟨,
75', Anderson Leite ↓, Ramon Martinez ↑,
76', Marlon Douglas ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
80', Cleber ↓, Hygor ↑,
81', Joao Vitor ↓, Mendes ↑,
82', Vinicius Faria ↓, Denner ↑,
90+2', Luan Freitas 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Avaí is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.4:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
27.06.25	Criciúma - Avaí	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Avaí - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
17.06.25	Volta Redonda - Avaí	1:1 ✺
07.06.25	Avaí - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	Coritiba - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLTWL
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Remo - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
13.06.25	Paysandu - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
06.06.25	Cuiabá - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
02.06.25	Paysandu - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.08.24	Avaí - Paysandu	1:0
03.05.24	Paysandu - Avaí	0:0
07.09.18	Paysandu - Avaí	2:1
25.05.18	Avaí - Paysandu	3:1
30.09.16	Avaí - Paysandu	2:0
14.06.16	Paysandu - Avaí	1:0
18.10.13	Paysandu - Avaí	0:2

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