The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Avaí 37.1%
Draw 31.5%
Athletico Paranaense 31.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.9%
28.4%
28.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.8%
29%
28.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.
Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avaí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
70%
30%
0%
Avaí - Athletico Paranaense Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Avaí: 50.6% – 100%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DC - Athletico PR (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Athletico PR (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Igor Bohn (G) 2. Railan 35. Pedrao 95. Jonathan Costa 33. Mario Sergio (C) 5. Gustavo Barreto 8. Joao Vitor 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 90. Mendes 94. Emerson Negueba 99. Cleber
1. Mycael (G) 45. Belezi 28. Habraao 3. Leo 14. Moraes K. 5. Felipinho 57. Joao Cruz 8. Giuliano (C) 37. Esquivel L. 19. Luiz Fernando 27. Alan Kardec
Substitutes
11. Alef Manga 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 36. DG 20. Gaspar 7. Hygor 16. Jamerson 80. JP 63. Marcos Vinicius 37. Rigley 41. Thayllon 34. Wanderson 4. Weverton
53. Dudu Kogitzki 98. Falcao 6. Fernando 4. Figueiredo T. 61. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 88. Patrick 31. Raul 70. Renan Peixoto 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Jair Ventura
Hellmann O.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Joao Cruz 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Luiz Fernando ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
38', Cleber 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Joao Cruz ↓, Raul ↑,
65', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Alef Manga ↑,
65', Emerson Negueba ↓, Thayllon ↑,
67', Railan ↓, JP ↑,
70', Giuliano ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
70', Alan Kardec ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
76', 0 - 2, Renan Peixoto ⚽,
78', 1 - 2, Marquinhos Gabriel ⚽,
79', Cleber ↓, Hygor ↑,
80', Mendes ↓, Gaspar ↑,
81', Luiz Fernando ↓, Tevis ↑,
86', Thayllon 🟨,
90', Esquivel L. 🟨,
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 0.
Avaí has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Athletico PR is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Recently, Athletico PR has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Avaí: Eduardo Brock
(Yellow Cards)
Jonathan Costa
(Inactive)
Quaresma
(Injury)
Ze Ricardo
(Inactive)
There will not play in Athletico PR: Isaac
(Inactive)
Julimar
(Knee Injury)
Palacios H.
(Inactive)
Velasco K.
(Ankle Injury)
There are questionable in Avaí: Renan
(Inactive)
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:17. (average 0.7:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.7:0.7).
Last Results with these Odds
Avaí - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.86%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
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Esquivel L. 
Figueiredo T. 
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