Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 10

Date: 2 June 2025, Monday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Paysandu		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.3	Watch
	2.3	2.87	3.1
	2.27	3	3.35
	2.36	3.07	3.56
	2.27	2.98	3.45	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.9
	2.29	3.02	3.42	Watch
	2.27	3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.33)	2.98 ↓ (3.12)	3.43 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
41.3%

Draw
31.4%

Criciúma
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.9%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	43.7%	18.7%

Paysandu - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Criciúma will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paysandu: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 16. Reverson 3. Quintana Y. 35. Mauricio Antonio 21. Bryan Borges 8. Andre Lima 27. Ramon Martinez 96. Matheus Vargas 77. Rossi (C) 9. Benitez J. 24. Borasi B.	1. Alisson (G) 23. Leo Alaba 4. Luciano Castan 3. Rodrigo (C) 6. Marcinho 40. Everton Morelli 35. Ze Gabriel 25. Guilherme Lobo 22. Marcelo Hermes 77. Diego Goncalves 39. Thales
Substitutes
15. Dudu Vieira 22. Eliel 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 31. Iago Hass (G) 36. Kevyn 4. Luan Freitas 30. Marcelinho 20. Marlon Douglas 32. Monteiro A. 18. Thalyson	73. Adrianinho 14. Benevenuto 10. Jhonata Robert 21. Joao Carlos 50. Juninho 12. Kaua Moroso (G) 88. Luiz Henrique 5. Matheus Trindade 87. Octavio Silva 34. Otusanya O. 99. Sassa 2. Yan Souto
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Matheus Nogueira ↓, Gabriel Mesquita ↑,
32', Quintana Y. ↓, Luan Freitas ↑,
36', Reverson 🟨,
45+4', Ze Gabriel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Everton Morelli ↓, Matheus Trindade ↑,
46', Leo Alaba ↓, Juninho ↑,
46', Ramon Martinez ↓, Kevyn ↑,
52', 0 - 1, Diego Goncalves ⚽, Guilherme Lobo (A),
52', Diego Goncalves 🟨,
56', Ze Gabriel ↓, Yan Souto ↑,
56', Mauricio Antonio ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
57', Benitez J. ↓, Eliel ↑,
61', Yan Souto 🟨,
65', Andre Lima 🟨,
68', Thales ↓, Otusanya O. ↑,
78', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
80', Luciano Castan 🟨,
83', Alisson 🟨,
86', Luiz Henrique 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 1.

Recent performances by Paysandu have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Criciúma is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Criciúma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Paysandu has had a series of away games.

Paysandu will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Paysandu: Bryan Borges (Inactive) Delvalle P. (Ankle Injury) Edilson (Injury) Edinho (Knee Injury) Kevyn (Knee Injury) Leandro Vilela (Yellow Cards) Marlon Douglas (Inactive) Novillo J. (Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Fellipe Mateus (Inactive) Gabriel Barros (Inactive)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Ramon Martinez (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Gabriel Novaes (Inactive) Jonathan (Injury) Werik Popo (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
25.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Bahia - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0 ✺
14.05.25	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
11.05.25	Remo - Paysandu	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLTTW
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
26.05.25	Criciúma - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Criciúma	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	CRB Maceio - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Criciúma - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
06.11.21	Paysandu - Criciúma	0:1
03.10.21	Criciúma - Paysandu	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
22.09.18	Paysandu - Criciúma	1:1
05.06.18	Criciúma - Paysandu	4:1
27.10.17	Paysandu - Criciúma	1:0
11.07.17	Criciúma - Paysandu	1:1
25.11.16	Paysandu - Criciúma	1:2

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