Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 35

Date: 2 November 2022, Wednesday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)


	Avaí		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.3
	3.2	3.4	2.25
	3.05	3.25	2.26
	3.25	3.37	2.36
	3.2	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.14	3.25	2.3	Watch
	3.05	3.3	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↓ (3.17)	3.28 ↑ (3.09)	2.29 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
30%

Draw
28.8%

Red Bull Bragantino
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

29.9%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

30%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.5%	24.1%	41.4%

Avaí - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 10 - 34.5%). RB Bragantino will win (votes: 12 - 41.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 24.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Bragantino: 23.5% – 59.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 14).

Avaí has the most likely position - 19 (92.14%), has project points - 31, has currently - 28, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of win league.

RB Bragantino has the most likely position - 14 (39.3%), has project points - 47, has currently - 41, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 42, very small importance 2, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avaí won 1.

Avaí has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches RB Bragantino is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

RB Bragantino will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Avaí: Diego Matos (Injury) Paolo Guerrero (Injury)

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Alerrandro (Injury) Jan Hurtado (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Avaí won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie A
27.10.22	Cuiabá - Avaí	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Palmeiras - Avaí	3:0 ✺
16.10.22	Avaí - Fluminense	0:3 ✺
09.10.22	Fortaleza - Avaí	2:0 ✺
06.10.22	Avaí - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.22	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
22.10.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	4:2 ✺
17.10.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	0:2 ✺
09.10.22	Coritiba - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
05.10.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Cuiabá	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
09.07.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Avaí	4:0
Brazilian Serie B
17.09.16	Avaí - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0
07.06.16	Red Bull Bragantino - Avaí	1:0
Copa do Brasil
10.05.16	Avaí - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1
03.05.16	Red Bull Bragantino - Avaí	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.14	Red Bull Bragantino - Avaí	1:4
22.04.14	Avaí - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2

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