Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 18

Date: 19 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)


	Avaí		Sampaio Corrêa

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.95	4.1
	1.92	3	4.3
	2.04	2.98	4.8
	1.95	2.88	3.75
	1.94	3.16	4.45	Watch
	2	3.05	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.21)	3 ↑ (2.95)	4.23 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
47.2%

Draw
30.9%

Sampaio Corrêa
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

30.7%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

29.3%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avaí's performance.

Sampaio Corrêa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sampaio Corrêa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sampaio Corrêa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	23.1%	23.1%

Avaí - Sampaio Corrêa Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Sampaio Corrêa will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avaí: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Igor Bohn (G) 98. Igor 4. Roberto Rosa 35. Felipe Silva 31. Bruno Cortez (C) 16. Jean Cleber 5. Wellington 23. Rafael Gava 10. Willian Pottker 9. Denilson 38. Felipinho	1. Luiz Daniel (G) 2. Mateus Pivo 5. Jhony Douglas 4. Gustavo Henrique 6. Vitinho 20. Mauricio Maranhao 13. Joecio 7. Robinho 10. Marcinho (C) 8. Ferreira 23. Ytalo
Substitutes
68. Edinho 8. Eduardo 90. Fellipe Bastos 17. Gustavo Modesto 2. Igor Dutra 11. Patino S. 72. Thales Oleques 20. Vitinho 13. Waguininho 39. Xavier 87. Ygor Vinhas (G)	19. Alyson Neves 9. Emerson Carioca 3. Fabio Aguiar 15. Jailson 18. Mikael 21. Neto Paraiba 16. Para 14. Rafael Jansen 17. Samuel Santos 12. Thiago Braga (G) 22. Vinicius Alves
Coaches
Barroca E.	Fernandes M.

Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avaí won 4.

Avaí is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Sampaio Corrêa is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Avaí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Avaí have a series of home games.

Avaí will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Avaí won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 19-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
08.07.23	Avaí - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
01.07.23	Avaí - ABC	0:2 ✺
28.06.23	Ceará - Avaí	0:0 ✺
24.06.23	Avaí - Londrina	0:0 ✺
11.06.23	Avaí - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTTT
- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Serie B
14.07.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Ituano	0:0 ✺
08.07.23	Tombense - Sampaio Corrêa	0:1 ✺
01.07.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
28.06.23	Vitória Salvador - Sampaio Corrêa	2:1 ✺
25.06.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.11.21	Avaí - Sampaio Corrêa	2:1
17.08.21	Sampaio Corrêa - Avaí	0:2
15.12.20	Sampaio Corrêa - Avaí	0:1
20.09.20	Avaí - Sampaio Corrêa	2:5
22.09.18	Avaí - Sampaio Corrêa	3:1
05.06.18	Sampaio Corrêa - Avaí	1:1
23.08.16	Sampaio Corrêa - Avaí	1:2

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