Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 19

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Referee: Belence P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	Avaí		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	6.25	Watch
	1.71	3.25	5
	1.65	3.4	5.7
	1.66	3.58	6.41
	1.18	6.36	14.66	Watch
	1.75	3.25	5
	1.64	3.58	5.87	Watch
	1.74	3.2	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.65)	3.77 ↑ (3.35)	6.76 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
59.9%

Draw
25.8%

Botafogo SP
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

27.4%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

24.9%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Avaí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Avaí - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Botafogo SP will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avaí: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Botafogo SP (3.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 2 - 40%). Botafogo SP (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 34. Wanderson 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 77. Ze Ricardo 98. JP 78. Andrey 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 94. Emerson Negueba 99. Cleber 7. Hygor	1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Jeferson 3. Ericson 4. Eduardo 6. Jean Victor 5. Gabriel Bispo 8. Marquinho 10. Maciel L. (C) 11. Jefferson Nem 9. Carrillo R. 7. Robinho
Substitutes
11. Alef Manga 36. DG 30. Guilherme Santos 1. Igor Bohn (G) 16. Jamerson 8. Joao Vitor 32. Leo Reis 33. Mario Sergio 90. Mendes 37. Rigley 41. Thayllon 4. Weverton	14. Alisson Cassiano 19. Caique 18. Dramisino A. 12. Joao Carlos (G) 17. Jonathan Cafu 20. Matheus Barbosa 21. Matheus Regis 16. Risso G. 13. Wallison 15. Wesley Dias
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Angeli R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Emerson Negueba ⚽, JP (A),
13', 2 - 0, JP ⚽, Ze Ricardo (A),
22', Marcos Vinicius 🟨,
39', 3 - 0, Emerson Negueba ⚽, Cleber (A),
40', Jean Victor 🟨,
45+2', 4 - 0, Cleber (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Marquinho ↓, Wesley Dias ↑,
46', Robinho ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
60', JP ↓, Jamerson ↑,
60', Marcos Vinicius ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
61', Cleber ↓, Guilherme Santos ↑,
68', Maciel L. ↓, Dramisino A. ↑,
72', 🟨,
75', Gabriel Bispo ↓, Matheus Barbosa ↑,
77', Hygor ↓, Thayllon ↑,
78', Emerson Negueba ↓, Alef Manga ↑,
87', 5 - 0, Alef Manga (Pen),
89', Jefferson Nem ↓, Matheus Regis ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Avaí is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
24.07.25	Remo - Avaí	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
14.07.25	Athletic Club - Avaí	4:0 ✺
05.07.25	Avaí - Paysandu	0:0 ✺
27.06.25	Criciúma - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTLTW
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
24.07.25	Botafogo SP - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Amazonas - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
14.07.25	Botafogo SP - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
30.06.25	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.11.24	Botafogo SP - Avaí	1:3
30.07.24	Avaí - Botafogo SP	1:1
07.10.23	Botafogo SP - Avaí	0:1
11.06.23	Avaí - Botafogo SP	1:1
23.11.20	Botafogo SP - Avaí	0:1
18.08.20	Avaí - Botafogo SP	0:1

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