The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Avaí 22%
Draw 30.6%
São Paulo 47.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.1%
29%
34.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.5%
28.7%
34.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Paulo's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+14.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avaí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-13%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Paulo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
26.7%
26.7%
46.7%
Avaí - São Paulo Predictions
Users Predictions:
30 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 8 - 26.7%). São Paulo will win (votes: 14 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 26.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 28.8% – 64.6%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification)).
Avaí has the most likely position - 18 (10.14%), has project points - 42, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (40%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
São Paulo has the most likely position - 3 (10.21%), has project points - 61, has currently - 13, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a small chance of win league (9%).
This event has quality47, importance37, match rating42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Avaí won 1.
Avaí is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
São Paulo is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Avaí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently São Paulo have a series of home games.
São Paulo will have a small advantage in this match.
There will not play in Avaí: Friedrich D.
(Red Card)
Galdezani M.
(Injury)
Jean Pyerre
(Injury)
There will not play in São Paulo: Colorado A.
(Injury)
Gabriel Sara
(Injury)
Igor Gomes
(Red Card)
Last 6 head-to-head matches Avaí won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.
Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.
Watch
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