Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Corinthians		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.1	3.9	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.5
	2.08	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.11	3.19	4.26
	2.13	2.98	4.13	Watch
	2	2.9	3.9
	2.07	3.21	4.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.21)	3.1 ↑ (3.02)	3.95 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
45.5%

Draw
30.5%

São Paulo
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

30.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

28.8%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	55.6%	11.1%

Corinthians - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 19. Carrillo A. 14. Raniele 7. Breno Bidon 8. Garro R. (C) 77. Lingard J. 9. Yuri Alberto	23. Rafael (G) 21. Soares C. 4. Matheus Doria 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 37. Artur 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 5. Andre Ramalho 26. Angileri F. 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 37. Kaio Cesar 51. Kaue (G) 52. Labyad Z. 55. Machado I. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M.	17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 48. Djhordney 30. Felipe Negrucci 40. Igor Felisberto 33. Luan Silva 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 46. Pedro Ferreira 14. Tapia G. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Diniz F.	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Raniele ⚽, Garro R. (A),
41', 1 - 1, Luciano ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
45+1', Gabriel Paulista 🟨,
45+1', Matheus Bidu 🟨,
45+1', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,
45+1', Sabino 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 2 - 1, Matheuzinho ⚽, Carrillo A. (A),
57', 3 - 1, Breno Bidon ⚽, Garro R. (A),
69', Ferreira ↓, Cauly ↑,
69', Danielzinho ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
73', Diaz E. 🟨,
83', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
83', Carrillo A. ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
88', Garro R. ↓, Labyad Z. ↑,
88', Yuri Alberto ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Matheuzinho (Own goal),
90+2', Bobadilla D. ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
90+4', Labyad Z. 🟨,
90+4', Luan Silva 🟨,
90+5', Pedro Raul 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Corinthians may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Corinthians might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Corinthians: Alex Santana (Inactive) Allan (Yellow Cards) Charles Rigon (Heel Injury) Depay M. (Thigh Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Kayke (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury) Marcos Antonio (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Broken nose) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucas Ramon (Injury) Toloi R. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:29. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:11. (average 1.4:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 27.68%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Mirassol - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLWWW
- São Paulo FC
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	OHiggins - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	São Paulo - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	São Paulo - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.01.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.25	Corinthians - São Paulo	3:1
19.07.25	São Paulo - Corinthians	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
26.01.25	São Paulo - Corinthians	3:1
Brazilian Serie A
29.09.24	São Paulo - Corinthians	3:1
16.06.24	Corinthians - São Paulo	2:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
30.01.24	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:2

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