Match Info

ITALY: SERIE C - GROUP C - ROUND 12

Date: 4 November 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Avellino		Virtus Francavilla

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.2	8.5
	1.35	4.33	9
	1.32	4.51	11.06
	1.29	4.51	11.06
	1.29	4.4	10
	1.26	4.6	11
	1.33	4.2	8.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.66)	4.39 ↑ (3.3)	9.92 ↑ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avellino
69.9%

Draw
20.8%

Virtus Francavilla
9.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

27.5%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

25.9%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avellino's performance.

Virtus Francavilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Virtus Francavilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Avellino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus Francavilla than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Virtus Francavilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Avellino - Virtus Francavilla Predictions

Users Predictions: Avellino will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ghidotti S. (G) 21. Armellino M. (C) 14. Cancellotti T. 8. Lores I. 31. Marconi M. 13. Mule E. 6. Palmiero L. 33. Pezzella S. 2. Ricciardi M. 4. Sannipoli D. 11. Sgarbi L.	22. Forte F. (G) 40. Accardi A. 9. Artistico G. 7. Biondi K. 3. De Marino D. 8. Di Marco T. 19. Izzillo N. 30. Macca F. 5. Monteagudo J. C. (C) 23. Nicoli S. 10. Polidori A.
Substitutes
99. Casarini F. 23. Dall'Oglio J. 27. D'Angelo Sonny 7. Falbo L. 35. Gori G. 17. Maisto F. 1. Pane P. (G) 12. Pizzella A. (G) 10. Russo R. 59. Susko D. 55. Tozaj E.	17. Carella F. 37. Castiglia A. 31. Enyan E. 72. Fekete M. 90. Giovinco G. 80. Latagliata M. 18. Lo Duca L. 12. Lucatelli I. (G) 21. Risolo A. 26. Yakubiv S. 11. Zuppel D.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs and 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Group A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avellino won 3.

Avellino in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Virtus Francavilla is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Avellino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Avellino is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Avellino to win the game is with odds 1.33.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Avellino won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Avellino won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Avellino
Italian Serie C Group C
29.10.23	Catania - Avellino	0:2 ✺
25.10.23	Avellino - Audace Cerignola	1:0 ✺
22.10.23	Avellino - Nuova Monterosi	2:1 ✺
16.10.23	Casertana - Avellino	0:2 ✺
09.10.23	Avellino - Potenza	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWWWW
- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Italian Serie C Group C
29.10.23	Virtus Francavilla - Taranto	1:2 ✺
25.10.23	Latina - Virtus Francavilla	1:0 ✺
20.10.23	Monopoli - Virtus Francavilla	3:0 ✺
15.10.23	Virtus Francavilla - Sorrento	1:5 ✺
08.10.23	Turris - Virtus Francavilla	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
25.02.23	Avellino - Virtus Francavilla	0:1
22.10.22	Virtus Francavilla - Avellino	2:3
15.02.22	Virtus Francavilla - Avellino	1:0
09.10.21	Avellino - Virtus Francavilla	1:0
28.03.21	Avellino - Virtus Francavilla	1:0
06.12.20	Virtus Francavilla - Avellino	1:0
09.02.20	Virtus Francavilla - Avellino	1:1

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