Match Info

Liga 1 - Play Offs - Final

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cusco		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.7	4.5	Watch
	1.78	3.45	4.45	Watch
	1.78	3.5	4.77
	1.78	3.65	4.38	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.2
	1.77	3.71	4.29	Watch
	1.85	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.34)	3.57 ↑ (3.25)	4.37 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cusco
52.4%

Draw
26.2%

Sporting Cristal
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

28.7%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

29.3%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cusco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cusco's performance.

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Cristal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cusco than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cusco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Cristal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Cusco - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cusco will win (votes: 8 - 80%). Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cusco: 55.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Diaz P. (G) 8. Fuentes A. 19. Gamarra C. 6. Ampuero A. 24. Ruidias M. 16. Valenzuela O. 7. Da Silva P. 14. Diez C. 10. Colman I. (C) 22. Colitto L. 9. Callejo F.	1. Enriquez D. (G) 8. Sosa L. 20. Araujo M. 5. Lutiger R. 24. Pacheco F. 55. Cazonatti G. 26. Wisdom I. 7. Gonzalez S. 25. Tavara M. (C) 23. Castro M. 99. Otoya D.
Substitutes
32. Aquino J. 5. Aucca M. 29. Correa E. 18. Galvez S. 26. Silva N. 11. Tevez J. 13. Vidal A. (G) 15. Zarabia S. 21. Zevallos J.	11. Avila I. 14. Benavente C. 77. Cabellos C. 13. Duarte A. (G) 10. Gonzales C. 16. Iberico L. 28. Pasquini N. 29. Posito Olazabal A. J. 6. Pretell J.
Coaches
Rondelli M.	Autuori P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Pacheco F. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Colman I. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Ampuero A. 🟨,
54', Tavara M. 🟨,
56', 2 - 0, Callejo F. ⚽, Colitto L. (A),
60', Pacheco F. ↓, Benavente C. ↑,
61', Wisdom I. ↓, Pasquini N. ↑,
61', Cazonatti G. ↓, Pretell J. ↑,
65', Colitto L. ↓, Silva N. ↑,
66', Otoya D. ↓, Avila I. ↑,
69', Fuentes A. 🟨,
74', Callejo F. ↓, Tevez J. ↑,
76', Castro M. ↓, Iberico L. ↑,
79', Da Silva P. 🟥,
86', Ruidias M. ↓, Zevallos J. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cusco won 1.

Cusco is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sporting Cristal is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cusco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cusco is the team to beat.

There will not play in Cusco: Milesi A. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Sporting Cristal: Abram L. (Muscle Injury) Gonzales C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cusco: Custodio A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cusco won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 24:39. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cusco won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cusco FC
Peruvian Liga 1
10.12.25	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Sport Huancayo - Cusco	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Cusco - Sport Boys	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Cusco	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Cusco - Atlético Grau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWTW
- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
10.12.25	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	3:4 penalties ✺
02.12.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
19.11.25	Atlético Grau - Sporting Cristal	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Sporting Cristal - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
10.12.25	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	1:0
14.09.25	Cusco - Sporting Cristal	3:2
13.04.25	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	1:0
22.09.24	Cusco - Sporting Cristal	1:1
21.04.24	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	2:0
29.09.23	Cusco - Sporting Cristal	4:1
20.05.23	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	3:2

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