Match Info

Championship - Round 4

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: McFarlane D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Ayr United Media
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ayr United		Greenock Morton

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.60	4.75
	1.61	3.50	4.60
	1.65	3.45	4.70	Watch
	1.69	3.66	5.32
	1.64	3.81	5.21	Watch
	1.67	3.55	5.25
	1.72	3.74	4.94	Watch
	1.71	3.55	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.7)	3.61 ↑ (3.55)	4.95 ↑ (4.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
55.6%

Draw
25.7%

Greenock Morton
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

25.9%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

24.9%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Greenock Morton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greenock Morton than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Ayr United - Greenock Morton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stone H. (G) 2. McAllister N. 20. McBeth L. 5. Holt K. 32. Watret D. 15. Murphy J. 6. Lyon R. (C) 16. Summers B. 33. McMann S. 11. Taylor R. 7. Stirton O.	1. Harrison E. (G) 2. Ballantyne C. 4. Cupps C. 52. Fairnie L. 28. Murphy L. 21. Gillespie G. (C) 47. Cochrane H. 29. O'Halloran M. 20. Sandilands C. 7. Garrity M. 10. Brophy E.
Substitutes
3. Dick L. 34. Douglas J. 17. Hatton T. 25. Mitchell K. 38. Russell L. (G) 35. Simpson J. 26. Warbrick M.	17. Bashir S. 35. Black D. 25. Carse M. 31. Kinnear B. (G) 11. Mcluckie B. 6. Moore K. 30. O’Toole J. 19. Robertson K. 8. Savoury G.
Coaches
Naysmith G.	Murray I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', McBeth L. 🟨,
42', Gillespie G. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Murphy J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 1 - 1, Brophy E. ⚽, Sandilands C. (A),
67', Murphy J. ↓, Hatton T. ↑,
69', Sandilands C. ↓, Savoury G. ↑,
72', Fairnie L. 🟨,
73', Cochrane H. ↓, Robertson K. ↑,
75', Robertson K. 🟨,
77', McMann S. ↓, Dick L. ↑,
77', Summers B. ↓, Douglas J. ↑,
83', O'Halloran M. ↓, Bashir S. ↑,
89', McAllister N. ↓, Mitchell K. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 6 and 9 in the zone Championship (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 1.

Ayr has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Greenock is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Ayr is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayr won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 0.8:0.8).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Ayr: 1.52% Morton: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Ayr	9	3	2	4	9:10	-1	11
10	Morton	9	0	1	8	5:17	-12	1

Last Results with these Odds

Greenock Morton - the odds 4.59 are the expected chance of winning is 20.02%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
22.08.26	Raith Rovers - Ayr United	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
14.08.26	Kilmarnock - Ayr United	3:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
08.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Ayr United - Arbroath	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Ayr United - Alloa Athletic	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLTWW
- Greenock Morton
Scottish Football Championship
22.08.26	Greenock Morton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Stenhousemuir - Greenock Morton	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Greenock Morton - Partick Thistle	0:1 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Greenock Morton - Inverness	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	St. Johnstone - Greenock Morton	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
21.03.26	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	0:1
27.12.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	1:1
18.10.25	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	2:1
23.08.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	2:2
08.03.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	2:1
28.12.24	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	0:0
Scottish Cup
30.11.24	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	2:0

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