Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Azuaga		Badajoz

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.78	2.48
	2.97	2.93	2.45
	3.1	2.8	2.3
	2.97	2.9	2.38
	3.14	3	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.6)	2.88 (2.88)	2.37 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Azuaga
30.1%

Draw
31.5%

Badajoz
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

31.2%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

31.1%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Azuaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Azuaga's performance.

Badajoz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Badajoz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Azuaga than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Azuaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Badajoz than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Badajoz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Azuaga - Badajoz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Badajoz (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Badajoz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
32', 1 - 0, Vera A. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 6)

Azuaga is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Badajoz is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Badajoz will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Azuaga won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Azuaga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Azuaga	5	5	0	0	14:2	12	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Azuaga
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
11.01.26	Azuaga - Pueblonuevo	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Montijo - Azuaga	2:1 ✺
19.12.25	Azuaga - Moralo	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Diocesano - Azuaga	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Azuaga - Villafranca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLLT
- CD Badajoz
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
11.01.26	Gévora - Badajoz	0:3 ✺
04.01.26	Badajoz - Calamonte	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Badajoz	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Badajoz - Jaraíz	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Montehermoso - Badajoz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
25.05.25	Azuaga - Badajoz	1:4
18.05.25	Badajoz - Azuaga	0:0
26.01.25	Azuaga - Badajoz	0:0
14.09.24	Badajoz - Azuaga	2:1

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