Match Info

Date: 18 September 2021, Saturday


	BSAD		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.7	3.1	2.1
	3.4	3.25	2.14	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.25
	3.38	3.33	2.32
	3.4	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.34	3.28	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↑ (2.93)	3.19 ↑ (3.1)	2.2 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BSAD
27.8%

Draw
29.4%

Gil Vicente
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

30.4%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.1%

21.8%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BSAD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gil Vicente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gil Vicente could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

BSAD - Gil Vicente Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 8).

Belenenses has the most likely position - 18 (16.56%), has project points - 34, has currently - 2, has a chance of relegated (35%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Gil Vicente has the most likely position - 9 (7.88%), has project points - 42, has currently - 7, has a small chance of relegated (12%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Belenenses is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Gil Vicente is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gil Vicente will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Belenenses won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BSAD
Liga Portugal
12.09.21	Vitoria Guimarães - BSAD	0:0 ✺
27.08.21	BSAD - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
21.08.21	Sporting Lisbon - BSAD	2:0 ✺
16.08.21	BSAD - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
08.08.21	Porto - BSAD	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTLLL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
12.09.21	Gil Vicente - Vizela	2:2 ✺
29.08.21	Santa Clara - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
21.08.21	Gil Vicente - Benfica	0:2 ✺
15.08.21	Portimonense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
09.08.21	Gil Vicente - Boavista	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
26.04.21	BSAD - Gil Vicente	2:1
04.01.21	Gil Vicente - BSAD	0:0
19.07.20	BSAD - Gil Vicente	1:0
12.01.20	Gil Vicente - BSAD	2:0
23.05.15	Gil Vicente - BSAD	0:2
18.01.15	BSAD - Gil Vicente	2:0
06.04.14	Gil Vicente - BSAD	0:1

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