Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 24

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Gil Vicente		Benfica

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.53	Watch
	5.4	4.15	1.55	Watch
	6.17	4.27	1.56
	5.62	4.23	1.58	Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.53	Watch
	5.92	4.21	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.69 ↓ (5.78)	4.13 ↑ (4.05)	1.56 ↓ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
16.6%

Draw
22.9%

Benfica
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

23.4%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

22.9%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	15.4%	76.9%

Gil Vicente - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 3 - 7.9%). Benfica will win (votes: 29 - 76.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 62.8% – 89.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +1.5 - Gil Vicente (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Benfica (votes: 11 - 84.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Lucao (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 10. Esteves L. 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 27. Moreira A. 23. Hernandez H.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 25. Prestianni G. 27. Rafa Silva 21. Schjelderup A. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 48. Espigares A. 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 80. Rodrigues R. 6. Ze Carlos	44. Araujo T. 6. Bah A. 5. Barrenechea E. 72. Cabral A. 15. Lopes Cabral S. 11. Lukebakio D. 62. Neto J. 20. Rios R. 24. Soares S. (G)
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Pavlidis V. ⚽, Silva A. (A),
39', Otamendi N. 🟨,
45', Peixoto C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Aursnes F. ↓, Barrenechea E. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Hernandez H. ⚽, Garcia S. (A),
58', Caseres F. 🟨,
69', Prestianni G. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
69', Barreiro L. ↓, Rios R. ↑,
69', Hernandez H. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
69', Moreira A. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Schjelderup A. ⚽,
76', Schjelderup A. 🟨,
82', Schjelderup A. ↓, Bah A. ↑,
83', Caseres F. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
83', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
87', Elimbi M. 🟨,
90+1', Bah A. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is the team to beat.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Mutombo J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Benfica: Felix N. (Knee Injury) Veloso J. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Toure T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 17 matches, and goals 11:50. (average 0.6:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 3:19. (average 0.4:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16
7	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
22.02.26	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Gil Vicente - Braga	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Moreirense - Gil Vicente	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	5:0 ✺
26.01.26	Porto - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWWWL
- SL Benfica
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Real Madrid - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Benfica - AVS	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.02.26	Santa Clara - Benfica	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Benfica - Alverca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1
28.03.25	Gil Vicente - Benfica	0:3
28.09.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	5:1
04.02.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:0
26.08.23	Gil Vicente - Benfica	2:3
29.04.23	Gil Vicente - Benfica	0:2
13.11.22	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:1

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