Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 18

Date: 21 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Portimonense		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	3	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.85	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.7	3.45	2.79
	2.48	3.28	3.12
	2.3	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.48	3.2	2.98	Watch
	2.43	3.25	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.66)	3.28 ↑ (3.27)	2.92 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense
38.5%

Draw
28.9%

Gil Vicente
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

29%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

29.9%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	35.7%	21.4%

Portimonense - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Portimonense will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portimonense: 17% – 68.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Nakamura K. (G) 33. Igor Formiga 76. Alcobia R. 22. Relvas F. 18. Costa G. 25. Lucas Ventura 13. Dener 7. Jasper S. 11. Carlinhos (C) 77. Varela H. 19. Carrillo R.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos 35. Felipe Silva 26. Ruben (C) 5. Kiko 24. Gbane M. 10. Fujimoto K. 76. Neto M. 8. Dominguez M. 77. Murilo 70. Correia F.
Substitutes
85. Cassama M. 20. Estrela P. 27. Guga 28. Luan 10. Pereira H. 14. Seck M. 6. Sousa R. 12. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 99. Zinho	9. Alipour A. 23. Buta L. 6. Castillo J. 99. Marlon Maranhao 78. Miro 4. Ne Lopes 7. Toure T. 1. Vinicius Dias (G) 14. Wilson R.
Coaches
Paulo Sergio	Campelos V.

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 13 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 2.

Portimonense is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Gil Vicente is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gil Vicente could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 17-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Portimonense won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
12.01.24	Portimonense - Farense	1:0 ✺
07.01.24	Rio Ave - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
30.12.23	Portimonense - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
17.12.23	Moreirense - Portimonense	5:2 ✺
09.12.23	Portimonense - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLT
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
14.01.24	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Gil Vicente - Amarante	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Farense - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
30.12.23	Gil Vicente - Boavista	1:0 ✺
16.12.23	Arouca - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
12.08.23	Gil Vicente - Portimonense	5:0
23.04.23	Portimonense - Gil Vicente	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
14.12.22	Portimonense - Gil Vicente	0:3
Liga Portugal
04.11.22	Gil Vicente - Portimonense	1:2
23.01.22	Gil Vicente - Portimonense	1:0
15.08.21	Portimonense - Gil Vicente	0:1
14.02.21	Portimonense - Gil Vicente	4:1

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