Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Vieira B. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Tondela		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	5.25
	1.68	3.3	4.5
	1.78	3.4	4.75
	1.76	3.49	5.32
	1.75	3.38	5.08	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.5
	1.73	3.62	4.75	Watch
	1.78	3.4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.84)	3.41 ↑ (3.34)	4.86 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
53.4%

Draw
27.4%

Penafiel
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

28%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

29.7%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	54.5%	18.2%

Tondela - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Penafiel will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto 34. Alves R. (C) 6. Ceitil A. 18. Talocha 11. Costinha 8. Tavares H. 97. Cicero 21. Maranhao 17. Roberto 7. Xavier	31. Balde M. (G) 27. Negrao G. 4. Miguel J. (C) 44. Pereira R. 15. Silva J. 88. Ewerton 21. Batista D. 8. Reko 30. Silva A. 17. Gabriel Barbosa 77. Olamilekan Fatai S.
Substitutes
23. Cascavel 26. Cunha N. 43. Joao Cesco 48. Manso T. 60. Maviram E. 9. Miro 70. Moudjatovic M. 30. Ramos R. 1. Souza G. (G)	26. Brito D. 3. Gustavo Fernandes 11. Leal J. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 14. Pereira B. 10. Silva J. 99. Skuka X. 9. Suker H. 7. Vieira P.
Coaches
Pinto L.	Cristovao H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Reko ↓, Skuka X. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', 1 - 0, Xavier ⚽, Maranhao (A),
75', 2 - 0, Ceitil A. ⚽, Costinha (A),
77', Xavier ↓, Manso T. ↑,
78', Skuka X. ↓, Vieira P. ↑,
78', Silva A. ↓, Suker H. ↑,
79', Batista D. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
89', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
90', Costinha ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
90+2', Roberto ↓, Miro ↑,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tondela won 1.

Recent matches Tondela is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Penafiel is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Tondela is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Tondela won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8:14 (average 0.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Tondela won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 0:5 (average 0:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
26.01.25	Porto B - Tondela	2:2 ✺
19.01.25	Tondela - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
12.01.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:1 ✺
04.01.25	Tondela - Leiria	1:4 ✺
21.12.24	Chaves - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTTLT
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
26.01.25	Penafiel - Vizela	1:1 ✺
20.01.25	Oliveirense - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
04.01.25	Chaves - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
29.12.24	Penafiel - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
22.12.24	Torreense - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
25.08.24	Penafiel - Tondela	2:2
13.04.24	Tondela - Penafiel	0:1
03.12.23	Penafiel - Tondela	0:2
14.05.23	Penafiel - Tondela	1:0
09.01.23	Tondela - Penafiel	0:1
Portuguese League Cup
03.08.19	Penafiel - Tondela	1:0
Taça de Portugal
19.10.14	Penafiel - Tondela	3:2 penalties

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