Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday

Location: TSC Arena (Bačka Topola)

Referee: Sundberg J. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 12
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 15
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport Player, RTS Sport Player, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Bačka Topola		Lugano

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.6
	4.8	3.9	1.58
	5	4.2	1.6
	5.59	4.22	1.59
	4.91	4.3	1.59	Watch
	4.75	3.9	1.57
	5.34	4.33	1.62
	5	4.2	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.05 ↑ (3.45)	4.14 ↑ (3.55)	1.59 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bačka Topola
18.6%

Draw
22.6%

Lugano
58.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

26%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

25.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bačka Topola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bačka Topola's form might have worsened.

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bačka Topola than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bačka Topola, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	4.2%	91.7%

Bačka Topola - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (44 of 47 users predict this - 93.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.63% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ilic V. (G) 22. Jovanovic S. 25. Djordjevic M. 5. Stevanovic D. 30. Petrovic N. (C) 7. Radin M. 35. Djakovac I. 14. Stanic P. 18. Banjac M. 27. Pantovic M. 10. Cirkovic A.	1. Saipi A. (G) 2. Brault-Guillard Z. 6. Papadopoulos A. 5. Hajdari A. 26. Marques M. 8. Grgic A. 29. Belhadj M. 11. Steffen R. (C) 27. Dos Santos D. 18. Mahou H. 9. Vladi S.
Substitutes
3. Bagnack M. 31. Capan L. 24. Gordic D. 23. Jorgic N. (G) 4. Krstic V. 9. Lazetic M. 29. Mboungou V. 11. Milosavljevic I. 6. Pejic A. 88. Sos B.	31. Aliseda I. 25. Bislimi U. 10. Bottani M. 21. Cimignani Y. 20. Doumbia O. 22. El Wafi A. 17. Mai L. 99. Mina D. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K. 23. Valenzuela M. 46. Zanotti M.
Coaches
Damjanovic J.	Croci-Torti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Stanic P. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Radin M. 🟨,
57', Cirkovic A. 🟨,
58', Belhadj M. 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Pantovic M. ⚽,
61', 2 - 1, Belhadj M. ⚽,
62', 3 - 1, Stanic P. ⚽, Stevanovic D. (A),
64', Marques M. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
64', Dos Santos D. ↓, Bislimi U. ↑,
64', Belhadj M. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
70', Hajdari A. 🟨,
71', Jovanovic S. 🟨,
72', Djakovac I. ↓, Pejic A. ↑,
74', Mahou H. ↓, Cimignani Y. ↑,
83', Banjac M. ↓, Sos B. ↑,
83', Grgic A. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
83', 4 - 1, Pantovic M. ⚽, Cirkovic A. (A),
89', Sos B. 🟨,
89', Bottani M. 🟥,
90', Pantovic M. ↓, Mboungou V. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Bačka Topola is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lugano is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bačka Topola could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lugano is a favorite.

There will not play in Bačka Topola: Kuveljic N. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSC Bačka Topola
Serbian Superliga
03.11.24	Bačka Topola - Partizan	1:2 ✺
Serbian Cup
30.10.24	Vršac - Bačka Topola	1:2 penalties ✺
Serbian Superliga
27.10.24	Napredak Kruševac - Bačka Topola	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Bačka Topola - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Serbian Superliga
18.10.24	Bačka Topola - Radnički 1923	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWWLL
- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
03.11.24	Lugano - Yverdon	2:0 ✺
31.10.24	Grasshoppers - Lugano	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Lugano - Young Boys	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Mladá Boleslav - Lugano	0:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
20.10.24	Yverdon - Lugano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTWWL

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