Match Info

I Lyga - Round 8

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Babrungas Plungė		BFA Vilnius

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.45	4.05	Watch
	1.87	3.67	3.92
	1.74	3.73	4.03	Watch
	1.7	3.3	4.2
	1.81	3.51	4.13	Watch
	1.56	4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.6)	3.61 ↓ (3.98)	4.14 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Babrungas Plungė
52.7%

Draw
25.3%

BFA Vilnius
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

22.8%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

21.4%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Babrungas Plungė has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

BFA Vilnius has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Babrungas Plungė than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Babrungas Plungė, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius Predictions

Users Predictions: Babrungas Plungė will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Babrungas Plungė will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (4 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, ⚽,
52', 2 - 0, ⚽,
79', 3 - 0, ⚽,
86', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ TOPLYGA (Promotion: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Babrungas won 3.

Babrungas has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

BFA is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Babrungas has had a series of home games.

In this match, Babrungas is considered a favorite.

We predict that Babrungas will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Babrungas won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 2.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Babrungas won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 2.3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43:11	32	61
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39:35	4	43

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Babrungas Plungė
Lithuanian Division 2
24.04.26	Babrungas Plungė - Garliava	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Tauras Tauragė - Babrungas Plungė	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Babrungas Plungė - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Babrungas Plungė - Dainava Alytus	3:1 ✺
18.03.26	Babrungas Plungė - Transinvest 2	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WWWWW
- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
25.04.26	BFA Vilnius - Tauras Tauragė	3:1 ✺
17.04.26	Neptūnas - BFA Vilnius	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	BFA Vilnius - Dainava Alytus	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Transinvest 2 - BFA Vilnius	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	BFA Vilnius - FA Šiauliai B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
04.10.25	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	3:1
31.05.25	BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė	3:2
23.08.24	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	3:1
30.03.24	BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė	3:2
26.08.23	BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė	1:2
07.04.23	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	4:1
09.11.22	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	2:1

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