Match Info

Cymru South - Round 11

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday


	Baglan Dragons		Treowen Stars

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.9	4.65
	1.62	4.02	4.51
	1.60	4.06	4.88	Watch
	1.57	3.95	4.81
	1.56	3.85	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.6)	3.96 ↓ (4.06)	4.77 ↓ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
57.8%

Draw
23.1%

Treowen Stars
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

22.9%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

18.1%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Treowen Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Baglan Dragons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Treowen Stars than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Baglan Dragons - Treowen Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Jones C. (Own goal),
26', 1 - 1, Green L. ⚽,
36', 2 - 1, Logan N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', 3 - 1, Logan N. ⚽,
69', 3 - 2, Hartland C. ⚽,
90+3', 3 - 3, John H. ⚽,
90+6', Fleming J. 🟥,
90+7', 3 - 4, Hodges C. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 14).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, Baglan Dragons is seen as the favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.25	Afan Lido - Baglan Dragons	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United	0:1 ✺
17.09.25	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TTLLT
- Treowen Stars
Welsh Cymru South
11.10.25	Treowen Stars - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
03.10.25	Pontypridd United - Treowen Stars	5:2 ✺
27.09.25	Treowen Stars - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
12.09.25	Carmarthen Town - Treowen Stars	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Treowen Stars - Cwmbran Celtic	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLTT

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