Match Info

Cymru South - Round 9

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday


	Baglan Dragons		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.45	2.15
	2.65	3.56	2.31
	3.1	3.68	2.11
	2.60	3.50	2.25
	2.63	3.42	2.23
	2.70	3.50	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (2.92)	3.52 ↓ (3.55)	2.2 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
33.1%

Draw
25.7%

Carmarthen Town
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

25.2%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

24.1%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baglan Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Carmarthen Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+2', 0 - 1, Reed L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Thomas L. ⚽,
65', 1 - 2, Jones T. ⚽,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 5th and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Baglan Dragons won 0.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Recently, Carmarthen Town has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Carmarthen Town is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Baglan Dragons has recorded 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:13 (averaging 0.8:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Baglan Dragons against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:10 goals (averaging 1:3.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11:11	0	16
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Carmarthen Town - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 44.16%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerphilly Athletic	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 LWLWW
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.26	Carmarthen Town - Ynyshir Albions	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Llanelli - Carmarthen Town	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Treowen Stars	2:4 ✺
14.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Afan Lido	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
28.03.26	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	0:7
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0
05.04.25	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	1:1
09.08.24	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	3:2
01.04.24	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	2:2
08.08.23	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0

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