Match Info

Cymru South - Round 10

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Llanelli		Baglan Dragons

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.45	2.05
	2.97	3.71	2.12
	2.95	3.64	2.19	Watch
	2.90	3.65	2.03
	3.09	3.91	2.13
	2.85	3.50	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.63)	3.64 ↑ (3.62)	2.1 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli
31.2%

Draw
25.1%

Baglan Dragons
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

24.4%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Llanelli's performance.

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Baglan Dragons might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llanelli than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Llanelli - Baglan Dragons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Morgan E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', Davies T. (Penalty Awarded),
80', 1 - 1, Dubjaga A. ⚽,
84', 1 - 2, Davies T. ⚽,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 7th).

Llanelli is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Baglan Dragons have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Baglan Dragons has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Baglan Dragons is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Llanelli has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:4 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Llanelli against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11:11	0	16
16	Llanelli	10	0	2	8	7:27	-20	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli
Welsh Cymru South
26.09.26	Llantwit Major - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Caerau Ely - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Llanelli - Treowen Stars	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Llanelli	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Llanelli - Carmarthen Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLLT
- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
25.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerphilly Athletic	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
30.12.24	Llanelli - Baglan Dragons	2:0
23.08.24	Baglan Dragons - Llanelli	2:2
02.03.24	Baglan Dragons - Llanelli	1:2
08.09.23	Llanelli - Baglan Dragons	2:1

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