Match Info

Cymru South - Round 13

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday


	Baglan Dragons		Ynyshir Albions

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.75	4.15
	1.66	3.79	4.16
	1.61	4.10	4.68	Watch
	1.62	3.74	4.63
	1.55	3.95	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.55)	3.87 ↓ (3.95)	4.62 ↓ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
56.5%

Draw
23.7%

Ynyshir Albions
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

23.4%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

16.2%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Ynyshir Albions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Baglan Dragons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ynyshir Albions than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Baglan Dragons - Ynyshir Albions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Logan N. ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, Thomas D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 2 - 1, Haig J. ⚽,
73', Bethell C. 🟥,
86', Randall T. 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 15).

Recent performances by Baglan Dragons have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ynyshir Albions is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Baglan Dragons is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
31.10.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Baglan Dragons	0:1 ✺
24.10.25	Baglan Dragons - Treowen Stars	3:4 ✺
10.10.25	Afan Lido - Baglan Dragons	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLTTL
- Ynyshir Albions
Welsh Cymru South
01.11.25	Ynyshir Albions - Carmarthen Town	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Llantwit Major - Ynyshir Albions	2:1 ✺
11.10.25	Ynyshir Albions - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Ynyshir Albions - Trefelin	0:5 ✺
13.09.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Ynyshir Albions	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTLL

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