Match Info

Cymru South - Round 8

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Baglan Dragons		Cambrian United

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.75
	3.83	3.72	1.8
	4.62	3.67	1.71	Watch
	3.99	3.62	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.05 ↑ (3.67)	3.65 ↑ (3.59)	1.75 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
22.6%

Draw
25.1%

Cambrian United
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

25.3%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

24.8%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Cambrian United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 0 - 1, Eason L. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Recent performances by Baglan Dragons have been up and down (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cambrian United is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Cambrian United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Cambrian United has had a series of home games.

In this match, Cambrian United is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Baglan Dragons won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Baglan Dragons won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
17.09.25	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Baglan Dragons - Newport City	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LTTTT
- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Cambrian United - Afan Lido	4:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Cambrian United - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru South
05.09.25	Newport City - Cambrian United	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Cambrian United - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Cambrian United - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
08.01.25	Cambrian United - Baglan Dragons	0:0
12.10.24	Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United	4:1
06.01.24	Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United	0:2
17.11.23	Cambrian United - Baglan Dragons	2:0

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