Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 9 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Nacional Montevideo		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.6
	2.65	3.2	2.7	Watch
	2.66	3.22	2.76	Watch
	2.62	3	2.62	Watch
	2.63	3.14	2.83	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.53)	3.15 ↓ (3.23)	2.72 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
35.6%

Draw
29.8%

Bahia
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.3%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

31.2%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Nacional Montevideo - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Bahia (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nacional Montevideo will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 4 - 80%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mejia L. (G) 15. Calione P. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 13. Ancheta E. 6. Boggio L. 8. Oliva C. 11. Baez Corradi G. 76. Herazo D. 80. Otero R. 17. Eduardo Vargas	96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 13. Arias S. 4. Kanu 33. David Duarte 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 14. Erick 6. Jean Lucas 8. Cauly 9. Rodriguez L. 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
26. Arady B. 7. Lopez N. 19. Morales L. 10. Pereyra M. 9. Petit G. 2. Ramos N. 18. Recoba J. 77. Rodriguez N. 5. Rodriguez Y. 27. Romero D. 25. Suarez I. (G) 16. Villalba Jaume L. M.	7. Ademir 19. Caio Alexandre 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 2. Gilberto 37. Kayky 22. Marcos Felipe (G) 26. Nicolas Acevedo 21. Ramos S. 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 77. Tiago 12. Willian Jose
Coaches
Peirano P.	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Jean Lucas 🟨,
45+1', Erick 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Boggio L. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
57', Eduardo Vargas ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
64', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
64', Rodriguez L. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Erick Pulga ⚽,
72', Otero R. ↓, Recoba J. ↑,
72', Baez Corradi G. ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
76', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
76', Ancheta E. 🟨,
79', Oliva C. ↓, Pereyra M. ↑,
81', Rodriguez Y. 🟨,
82', Jean Lucas ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
82', Cauly ↓, Kayky ↑,
90+6', Calione P. 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Bahia: Gabriel Xavier (Inactive) Michel Araujo (Hamstring Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.25	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLTT
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Santos - Bahia	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.04.25	Bahia - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.03.25	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Bahia - Ceará	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
23.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTTWT

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