Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 30

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	19:30	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	17:30	Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	00:30	Arena Premium 2
Russia	01:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	00:30	Arena Premium 2
Usa	18:30	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.68	3.90	4.75
	1.68	3.6	4.65	Watch
	1.71	4.2	4.94
	1.74	4.13	4.31	Watch
	1.68	4.05	4.9
	1.69	4.18	4.74	Watch
	1.65	3.95	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.66)	3.99 ↑ (3.9)	4.79 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
56.4%

Draw
23.8%

Mirassol
19.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.2%

23.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

22.9%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Bahia - Mirassol Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 44. Marcos Victor 33. David Duarte 3. Moreno M. 46. Luciano Juba (C) 6. Jean Lucas 8. Caio Alexandre 11. Rodrigo 99. Olivera C. 9. Veliz A. 16. Erick Pulga	22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 2. Lucas Oliveira 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 27. Denilson 25. Neto Moura 10. Chico Kim (C) 19. Gustavo Silva 30. Bruno Santos 77. Alesson
Substitutes
7. Ademir 14. Erick 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 31. Gomez R. 17. Herrera G. (G) 4. Kanu 18. Lopez L. 15. Michel Araujo 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme	9. Andre Luis 96. Carlos Eduardo 20. Daniel Borges 95. Edson Carioca 33. Eduardo 17. Fernandinho 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 7. Shaylon 90. Thomazella (G) 12. Victor Luis 80. Wallisson 99. Ze Roberto
Coaches
Mucke R.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', Chico Kim 🟨,
36', Walter 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Luciano Juba (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Chico Kim ↓, Eduardo ↑,
46', Alesson ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
46', Gustavo Silva ↓, Shaylon ↑,
59', Caio Alexandre ↓, Erick ↑,
59', Marcos Victor ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
63', Jean Lucas 🟨,
67', Bruno Santos ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
72', Olivera C. ↓, Ademir ↑,
73', Rodrigo ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
73', Denilson ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
78', Eduardo 🟨,
87', Veliz A. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
90+3', Neto Moura 🟨,
90+7', Reinaldo (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15th).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Mirassol could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Bahia for this game.

Confirmed absences for Bahia: Leo Vieira (Knee Injury) Nicolas Acevedo (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for Mirassol: Joao Victor (Red Card) Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury).

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Bahia has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:7 (averaging 1.3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bahia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Bahia	32	13	11	8	45:40	5	50
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37:45	-8	37

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 56.22%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.26	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Bahia - Remo	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Bahia - Internacional RS	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLWWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
07.10.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Mirassol - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Coritiba - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Mirassol - Bahia	1:2
31.08.25	Mirassol - Bahia	5:1
13.04.25	Bahia - Mirassol	1:1

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