Match Info

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Bahia		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.68	4.00	4.75
	1.62	3.85	4.65
	1.71	4.05	4.54	Watch
	1.64	3.8	4.7
	1.69	4.1	4.85	Watch
	1.64	3.9	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 (1.66)	3.92 ↑ (3.9)	4.71 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
56.3%

Draw
23.8%

Mirassol
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

23.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

22.9%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Bahia - Mirassol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 15th).

Bahia is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Mirassol have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Bahia is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Bahia in today's match, at odds of 1.67.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Bahia has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:7 (averaging 1.3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bahia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43:35	8	46
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 56.22%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Bahia - Remo	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Bahia - Internacional RS	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWWWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
07.10.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Mirassol - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Coritiba - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Mirassol - Bahia	1:2
31.08.25	Mirassol - Bahia	5:1
13.04.25	Bahia - Mirassol	1:1

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