Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Santos		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.6
	2.25	3	3.5	Watch
	2.25	3.08	3.56	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.75
	2.26	3.08	3.51	Watch
	2.25	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.97)	3.08 ↓ (3.34)	3.56 ↓ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
42.9%

Draw
30.6%

Bahia
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

28.3%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

29.9%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santos's form might have worsened.

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	80%	0%

Santos - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Bahia (1.94) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Bahia (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 4. Gil (C) 2. Ze Ivaldo 31. Escobar G. 49. Gabriel Bontempo 5. Joao Schmidt 32. Rollheiser B. 22. Barreal A. 11. Guilherme 9. Tiquinho Soares	96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 25. Iago 19. Caio Alexandre (C) 14. Erick 11. Rodrigo 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose 46. Luciano Juba
Substitutes
36. Deivid Washington 21. Diego Pituca 70. Gabriel Veron 29. Godoy L. 3. Joao Basso 1. Joao Paulo (G) 38. Kevyson 14. Luan Peres 25. Luisao 8. Rincon T. 7. Soteldo Y. 16. Thaciano	13. Arias S. 8. Cauly 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 16. Erick Pulga 6. Jean Lucas 4. Kanu 37. Kayky 22. Marcos Felipe (G) 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 9. Rodriguez L. 77. Tiago
Coaches
Caixinha P.	Galbes L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Erick ⚽, Luciano Juba (A),
40', Joao Schmidt 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Rollheiser B. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
46', Barreal A. ↓, Thaciano ↑,
46', Iago ↓, Erick Pulga ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Thaciano ⚽,
51', Caio Alexandre 🟨,
56', Gil 🟨,
66', Caio Alexandre ↓, Cauly ↑,
66', Ademir ↓, Kayky ↑,
66', Rodrigo ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
70', Soteldo Y. 🟨,
74', Tiquinho Soares ↓, Deivid Washington ↑,
74', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
80', Willian Jose ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Diego Pituca ⚽,
83', Diego Pituca 🟨,
87', Erick 🟨,
90', 2 - 2, Luciano Juba ⚽, Cauly (A),
90+2', Guilherme ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
90+7', Joao Pedro Chermont 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santos won 2.

Recent matches Santos is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bahia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bahia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Santos will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Knee Injury) Neymar (Hamstring Injury) Soteldo Y. (Muscle Injury) Souza (Ankle Injury) Ze Rafael (Back Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Everton Ribeiro (Red Card) Michel Araujo (Hamstring Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Santos won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 24:16 (average 1.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Santos won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17:4 (average 1.7:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
30.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.03.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1 ✺
02.03.25	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - Santos	0:3 ✺
19.02.25	Santos - EC Noroeste	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWWW
- EC Bahia
Copa Libertadores
03.04.25	Bahia - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.03.25	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Bahia - Ceará	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
23.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	CS Alagoano - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.09.23	Bahia - Santos	1:2
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Bahia - Santos	2:1 penalties
17.05.23	Santos - Bahia	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.23	Santos - Bahia	3:0
11.09.21	Santos - Bahia	0:0
29.05.21	Bahia - Santos	3:0
25.02.21	Bahia - Santos	2:0

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