Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	21:00	Flow Eventos
Brazil	21:00	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	19:00	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	02:00	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	18:00	Azteca Deportes
North Central America	—	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	21:00	Flow Eventos
Russia	03:00	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	02:00	Arena Premium 2
United Kingdom	01:00	Premier Sports 2
Uruguay	21:00	Flow
Usa	20:00	Fanatiz


	Santos		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.9	3.9	Watch
	1.82	4.00	3.80
	1.82	3.85	3.7	Watch
	1.88	4.33	3.84
	1.91	4.05	3.63	Watch
	1.89	3.65	3.9
	1.81	4	4.21	Watch
	1.75	3.85	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.22)	3.95 ↑ (3.51)	3.83 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
51.5%

Draw
23.8%

Bahia
24.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.3%

26.8%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.2%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bahia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bahia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	18.2%	36.4%

Santos - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diogenes (G) 23. Rodinei 42. Joao Alencar 14. Luan Peres 22. Barreal A. 48. Gustavo Henrique 8. Gabriel Bontempo 7. Everton 11. Coutinho 10. Neymar (C) 9. Gabriel Barbosa	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 44. Marcos Victor 33. David Duarte 4. Kanu 46. Luciano Juba 14. Erick 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 11. Rodrigo 99. Olivera C. 9. Veliz A. 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
17. Caballero G. 25. Gabriel Menino 18. Igor Vinicius 26. Joao Ananias 34. Joao Paulo (G) 5. Joao Schmidt 45. Lima 30. Miguelito 28. Oliva C. 38. Rafael Gonzaga 32. Rollheiser B. 33. Rony	7. Ademir 8. Caio Alexandre 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 17. Herrera G. (G) 15. Michel Araujo 3. Moreno M. 77. Ruan Pablo 23. Sanabria M. 67. Wendel Passos 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Cuca	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Neymar 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Luciano Juba ⚽,
44', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 7th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 1.

Santos has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Bahia have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Santos has faced a series of away games on the road.

Bookmakers give the edge to Santos for this game.

Confirmed absences for Santos: Arthur Melo (Muscle Injury) Escobar G. (Inactive) Gabriel Brazao (Shoulder Injury) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Bahia: Gomez R. (Yellow Cards) Jean Lucas (Yellow Cards) Leo Vieira (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Santos: Lucas Verissimo (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Santos has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:19 (averaging 1.4:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Santos against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 18:3 goals (averaging 1.8:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Bahia	32	13	11	8	45:40	5	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49:47	2	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.26	Fluminense - Santos	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	São Paulo - Santos	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Remo - Santos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 WLTWW
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.26	Bahia - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
11.10.26	Bahia - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Bahia - Remo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2
24.08.25	Bahia - Santos	2:0
06.04.25	Santos - Bahia	2:2
18.09.23	Bahia - Santos	1:2
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Bahia - Santos	2:1 penalties
17.05.23	Santos - Bahia	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.23	Santos - Bahia	3:0

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